if the S&P 500 Index has generated an annualized return of roughly 8-10% over the long-term, leading companies serving important industries should, in theory, generate 300bps+ more over long periods of time. Understanding this and investing for it offers investors a long-term edge.
In every aspect of our lives, when we see bargains in merchandise we love, we buy more. As consumers, we get excited to capture a sale, but as investors, we run from sales. Flip this narrative around and we become great investors.
Leading companies serving large end-markets will tend to outperform over time. On the rare occasions when they struggle, that’s usually a time to be adding to those companies.
I’ve always believed watching what the smartest investors in the world are doing, offers the average HNW investor a wonderful advantage. The largest alternative asset managers, including the private equity and private credit firms, have an information advantage over the typical individual investor.
I’ve always believed watching what the smartest investors in the world are doing, offers the average HNW investor a wonderful advantage. The largest alternative asset managers, including the private equity and private credit firms, have an information advantage over the typical individual investor.
When consumers were locked in their homes and shopping online, savings rates and goods spending went parabolic. When things go parabolic, they should be expected to mean revert to the long-term trend over time. That’s exactly what has happened with Retail Sales and the components within this $7 trillion per year component of GDP.
Key Points:
Johnson & Johnson has spun out a portion of its consumer brands division
Stable, predictable brands should thrive as the economy decelerates
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In my opinion, true active strategies have a very important role in portfolios as complements to passive, cheap beta. Advisors need to understand what they own.
October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.
As an investor, it’s nice to know what we should expect from President Trump, because we have seen the movie before in 2017 – 2021. Apart from the early part of the Pandemic period, the economy and stock markets generally performed well.
Remember, our investment in stocks is a De facto vote of confidence on the economies in which we invest. Earnings, revenue, margins, free cash flow, and the growth of these important metrics is what drives stocks up or down over time.
The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.
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