Core allocations should be highly correlated to core themes around the globe. Global consumer spending is 60% of the world’s $100 trillion GDP or $60 trillion per year.
if the S&P 500 Index has generated an annualized return of roughly 8-10% over the long-term, leading companies serving important industries should, in theory, generate 300bps+ more over long periods of time. Understanding this and investing for it offers investors a long-term edge.
In every aspect of our lives, when we see bargains in merchandise we love, we buy more. As consumers, we get excited to capture a sale, but as investors, we run from sales. Flip this narrative around and we become great investors.
Leading companies serving large end-markets will tend to outperform over time. On the rare occasions when they struggle, that’s usually a time to be adding to those companies.
I’ve always believed watching what the smartest investors in the world are doing, offers the average HNW investor a wonderful advantage. The largest alternative asset managers, including the private equity and private credit firms, have an information advantage over the typical individual investor.
I’ve always believed watching what the smartest investors in the world are doing, offers the average HNW investor a wonderful advantage. The largest alternative asset managers, including the private equity and private credit firms, have an information advantage over the typical individual investor.
When consumers were locked in their homes and shopping online, savings rates and goods spending went parabolic. When things go parabolic, they should be expected to mean revert to the long-term trend over time. That’s exactly what has happened with Retail Sales and the components within this $7 trillion per year component of GDP.
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
We’ve lived this movie before. Last August, AAII bullish sentiment struck a 52-week high right before the Fed launched its September rate cutting cycle.
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