Commodity & Infrastructure Insights

We all know the US tax code is complicated. ALPS Advisors, manager of the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP), has been tripped up by the tax complexities inherent in their fund structure. As a result they’ve been forced to make an embarrassing NAV adjustment to AMLP for taxes, depressing the fund’s NAV by almost 4%. It must be frustrating for recent buyers, since it shifted the fund to a 2.7% monthly loss, 3.9% behind its index.

Long term energy forecasts are nowadays subject to a partisan test by many readers based on whether or not they project a rapid energy transition. The biggest oil and gas producers such as Exxon Mobil and Shell understand that the media interprets their published long run energy forecasts as reflecting their capex criteria. The result is a set of projections leavened with cheerleading for renewable energy, leaving the reader to separate the two.

2022 should have been a great year for renewables. The prices of fossil fuels, which they are supposed to replace, have jumped. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the importance of energy security, which solar panels and windmills offer because most countries can find places to build them. And global Green House Gas emissions (GHGs) have rebounded following the dip caused by the pandemic. So why aren’t renewables stocks riding high?

As the world’s leaders meet in Egypt at the COP27 climate change conference, there are reasons for optimism among those who yearn for a pragmatic approach to reducing global Green House Gas emissions (GHGs).

Fed chair Jay Powell and the American worker do not have an alignment of interests. In his remarks, following another 0.75% rate hike, Powell said the FOMC is, “acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation.” He always says that, so as to remind that some must sacrifice their jobs due to the Fed’s pursuit of higher unemployment. This will cool the labor market, and inflation, for the rest of us.

Poland has stopped producing fertilizer. Natural gas is a key input into the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea and Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN). The European energy crisis has rendered their manufacture uncommercial because of high natural gas prices, which are likely to persist for at least another year or so. Poland produces 6 million tons annually. Elsewhere in eastern Europe another 3 million tons of capacity is idle. In aggregate, 20% of Europe’s fertilizer production is shut down.

UK Prime Minister (PM) Liz Truss has reached “in office but not in power” in record time. On September 6th she met with Queen Elizabeth II and formally became PM. Two days later the Queen died, commencing a period of mourning that ended with the monarch’s funeral on September 19th. Practically speaking, that’s when Liz Truss’s hold on power began. Four days later her government shocked markets by announcing £45BN ($50BN) in tax cuts funded with borrowing.

Recently Shell’s CEO commented that China had added more coal production capacity during the third quarter than Shell’s entire global energy production. It is a response to high prices. We don’t often write about coal because we’re not invested in it. Prices have more than doubled over the past year, although were lower in September (the Fed St Louis series shown is through August). Unburdened by ESG and not visited by Greta, only China can explain how this is consistent with curbing CO2 emissions.  If they do start falling as promised in 2030 it will likely be from a higher level than they currently project.