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The consumer goods category has largely been the driver of U.S. GDP over the last year, from a consumption perspective. Many of the best brands that dominate these industries have shown incredible resilience during difficult times and their stocks have performed very well. At this point, though, the wild tailwinds are likely now turning to headwinds from a year-over-year comparisons perspective and from a valuation perspective.

As the third quarter slowly winds down, economic data announcements remain front page stories as the economy recalibrates amid the Delta variant. Even though labor markets and supply chains remain challenged with a less linear recovery and supply bottlenecks, the consumer price index (CPI), an inflation gauge, slowed its’ growth with the smallest gain in seven months as consumer prices increased only 0.3% (0.1% less than consensus).

The most relevant brands serving key consumption markets are often top perming stocks. Peloton is a great example since the IPO in September 2019.

On Monday, July 19, 2021, the Dow’s worst day of 2021 unfolded. Virus-sensitive assets (energy and travel sectors) sold off as less optimistic growth outlooks emerged from concerns of the increasing delta variant cases. Delta variant concerns coupled with skepticism of transitory inflation, decreasing bond yields, and incomplete economic recovery create a perplexing cocktail of potential economic outcomes.