Investment Strategy Insights Archives

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NFIB SURVEY Sends A Strong Warning About Small Cap Stocks

In September 2019, I wrote “NFIB Survey Trips Economic Alarms,” Of course, it was just a few short months later the U.S. economy fell into the deepest recession since the “Great Depression.” The latest NFIB survey is sending a strong warning to investors piling into small-cap stocks.

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7 min

How the ETF Industry Grew In 2020 and What to Expect in 2021

While 2020 brought difficult times for cruise operators, airlines and restaurants, U.S. ETF sponsors shook off an early hiccup and cruised to one of the most successful years in the history of the industry. Starting the year with $4.4 trillion in assets under management (AUM), ETFs rode a wave of in-flows and a powerful stock market rally to finish the year with more than $5.4 trillion of AUM, a 23.4% increase from the end of 2019.

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Yes, Virginia. There Is A Stock Market Bubble.

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1 min

Headlines from Across the MAP

It wasn’t just the Fed or the stimulus. The rise in savings among white-collar workers created a tide lifting nearly all financial assets. At MAP, we spend much of our time reading. We want to point you to our favorite articles. Here is our weekly curation of our favorite reads.

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1 min

The Case for Senior Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities

Legacy or seasoned senior RMBS were issued prior to the U.S. housing market collapse in 2007. Today, these bonds are supported by a resilient housing market, are backed by seasoned mortgages with lower LTVs, possess low interest rate sensitivity, and can benefit from refinancing/prepayment because they tend to trade at a discount.

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7 min

Volatility as an Asset Class

When it comes to investing, I attempt to be as realistic as possible. My life of following the markets began in the mid-90s when I saw the tremendous rise in prices associated with the tech boom, only to see subsequent crashes and recoveries. The lesson many have taken away from the market is that if I just buy and hold, I will be fine.

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Why There Is Literally No “Cash on the Sidelines”

In the later stages of a bull market advance, the financial media and Wall Street analysts start seeking out rationalizations to support their bullish views. One common refrain is “there are trillions of dollars in cash sitting on the sidelines just waiting to come into the market.”

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6 min

2021: Consumption Trend Change

As human beings, we consume from the day we are born until the day we pass. Personal consumption is the largest and most predictable phenomenon there is. Seven billion people spending money to acquire things they want and need always offers interesting investing opportunities. Sometimes, however, certain spending categories become more important than others.

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Shades Of 1999 As “Market Mania” Returns In 2020

There are certainly many similarities between today and 1999. From exceedingly high valuations to a rush by private equity investors to IPO overly priced companies as quickly as possible, prices are high. Of course, such is not possible without an underlying “Fear of Missing Out, or F.O.M.O.” by retail investors.

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A Major Support for Asset Prices Has Reversed

While markets have certainly been on a tear this year, due to massive amounts of Federal Stimulus, it has been an advance solely on valuation expansion. While the decline in 2020 earnings was no surprise given the pandemic, earnings were already declining in 2019. The chart shows this in the return attribution of the S&P 500.