Economic Insights Archives - Catalyst Insights

4 min

Asset Bubbles & Forward Returns

Asset bubbles have been prevalent throughout history. Whether it was the “Tulip bubble” in the 1600s, the South Sea bubble of the 1700s, or the Dot.com bubble of 2000, they were all a result of excessive investor speculation.

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4 min

The Fed Is Misreading Housing Inflation

The August CPI report that came out last Tuesday was the catalyst for a sharp market reversal. The headline number was a benign 0.1%, helped by falling gasoline prices. But the “core” number (ex food and energy) came in at 0.6%.

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6 min

Corrections In Leading Companies Are for Buying

Historically, equity markets are positive roughly 80% of the time, or 8 out of 10 years. So far this year, they are negative. In addition, the average annual drawdown peak to trough is ~14% (source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets Report).

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4 min

The Strong Fundamentals Underpinning Pipelines

Since 2016 the payout on the MLP-dedicated Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) is down by half. Corporations have done better because they generally have higher coverage. Today’s pipeline CFO is building in plenty of cushion to protect payouts even in a steep downturn, which is why dividend hikes and buybacks are becoming more common.

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5 min

Recession Signals Abound As Fed Hikes Rates

While the Federal Reserve is focused on fighting inflation and willing to cause “some pain” to achieve victory, they hope to do so without evoking a recession. Such may be a challenge for two primary reasons:

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5 min

The Bear Market Is Over. Or, Is It Just Hibernating?

The bear market is over. While that statement fills the mainstream media, it remains a hotly debated question in every media forum. It is an interesting point considering that it was just in June we were answering the question of “when will this bear market end?”

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3 min

The High-Priced Energy Transition

“Thankfully, energy has been the bright spot in our client portfolios,” said investor Emily Jaffe. We had just sat down to enjoy a most convivial lunch with Emily and her business partner Jeff Waters of OFC Wealth Management. In the photo below we are toasting the performance of the pipeline sector this year.

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6 min

A Playbook for Investing in Structurally Higher Inflation

Consumers have already begun making decisions based on higher prices. There will be big winners and losers which makes stock picking a very important portfolio position for the next 12-24 months. Not every company is well suited for the environment we are in, and the most relevant brands will be taking market share. That’s where our team is focused from a stock selection perspective.

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4 min

Long Term Returns Are Unsustainable

Long-term returns are unsustainable. I realize that is a bold statement that flies in the face of mainstream analysis. How often have you seen the following chart presented by an advisor suggesting if you had invested 120 years ago, you would have obtained a 10% annualized return?

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5 min

Jim Cramer Says Fed Pivot Means Buy Stocks?

Of course, such sentiment is not surprising given that over the last decade, investors have repeatedly been beaten into submission to buy stocks when the Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy. Such was a point we discussed in “Pavlov’s Dogs & The Ringing Of The Bell:”

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