Economic Insights Archives - Catalyst Insights

6 min

Why Iron Ore Prices Mean More Than You Think

If you were a commodities-focused investor and had success over the last decade, iron probably had something to do with your performance. Indeed, according to this chart from S&P Global Platts below, iron ore futures "drastically" outperformed most other metals and mining equities since 2015.

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6 min

Small Caps Could Be In Trouble In 2022

"Small caps," or small-capitalization companies, could be in trouble next year if signs from the NFIB survey are correct.

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4 min

“Wipe Out” Below The Calm Surface Of The Bull Market

"Wipe Out" is an appropriate description of what is happening beneath the calm surface of the bull market. As we head into the end of the year, many are hoping for "Santa to visit Broad and Wall." However, those hopes are not just about adding to this year's already excessive annual gains. Instead, for many, it's the hope to recover some brutal losses.

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6 min

The Market Is Disconnected From Everything

The market is disconnected from everything. Throughout history, there are correlations you would expect to hold constant between the market, consumer confidence, and the economy. Currently, after a decade of zero interest rate policy, massive amounts of liquidity, and financial supports, the market has become detached from reality.

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6 min

A Hydrogen-Powered Paradigm Shift

Today, hydrogen is largely used for industrial purposes, either in oil refining or the production of ammonia fertilizers. (If you didn't read our missive on fertilizers, click here). But hydrogen has a lot more potential than that. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel. It can be transported via pipelines or ships, just like liquified natural gas.

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6 min

Inflation vs. Deflation – Which Is The Bigger Threat In 2022?

Inflation vs. deflation – while headlines get filled with “inflation” concerns, historical data shows “deflation” remains a threat.

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3 min

The Emergence Of Omicron Covid

For the past few months the eurodollar futures market has steadily priced in the FOMC’s abandonment of “transitory” in its assessment of inflation. More often than not the Fed follows the market. The typical absence of public comments that precedes FOMC meetings was extended while Biden contemplated renewing Powell’s term.

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4 min

Will The Fed Catch Up With The Curve?

It’s easy to criticize the Fed. They’ve maintained their uber-accommodative monetary policy for probably a year longer than needed. Once the vaccine breakthrough was announced last November, prudence dictated that they anticipate an economic rebound and begin normalizing rates.

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5 min

The Fed & Economy: A Quick Update

The Fed announced the taper of bond purchases will begin this month with $15B and they will also taper in December. Some think the December announcement is slightly hawkish but I think the market just likes certainty so I'm happy they told us December would be the same.

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4 min

How Will Fed Chair Powell Respond To The Market?

A significant interest rate move has taken place in recent days that has received scant coverage from mainstream financial media. The market has priced in a more aggressive pace of Fed tightening over the next couple of years, while simultaneously moderating the outlook beyond that. This flattening of the yield curve has been reflected in the spread between two and five year treasury securities, which reversed a steepening trend.