My team and I are constantly looking forward, and trying to get into the mind of consumers to identify potential investment opportunities. 2020 was the year where portfolio concentration, expensive growth stocks and active trading was a winning trio. 2021 thus far has been the mirror opposite with value significantly outperforming growth and re-opening stocks and cyclicals offering strong portfolio value.
As we explained in “The Next Stage of Disruptors: Part 1,” we discussed the start of “the Age of the New Disruptor,” innovative disruptive industries' historical economic dominance, and the microeconomics of innovation. We also highlighted tier 1 disruptors, innovations or technological advancements that have started to gain mainstream adoption, creating some of the most coveted growth investment opportunities to date.
Recently, many of us had probably noticed that when the 10-year U.S. government bond yield increased, the Nasdaq-100 Index tended to drop in value. This post will demonstrate what other economic exposures of the Nasdaq-100 are using the patented 18-factor model created by MacroRisk Analytics®. Financial advisors and investors can use this information to better understand the risks and opportunities involved with an investment in the Nasdaq-100.
Many yearn for a degree of pre-COVID norms. Nevertheless, as we gradually adapt to the stubborn social standards spawned by the pandemic's reaction, we cannot forget the opportunities it has created and behavioral expectations that will likely remain.
As thematic investors who assess global consumer spending trends, we have so many exciting secular trends to explore. One of the largest and most prominent consumption trends is the dramatic rise in Fintech innovation and the slow but steady death of cash as the primary method of transactions. Cash used as a percent of total global purchase transactions is estimated to be roughly 70% so it’s still very large.
We are now, approximately one year from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic’s onset in the United States. In short, we remain in the midst of a stock market rotation away from “momentum” stocks fueled by COVID-related shutdowns and societal adaptations towards “value” stocks that remain historically cheap and consist of cyclical laggards.
The economic recovery and reflation tailwinds wreaked havoc on stocks and other risk assets last week. As predicted in “Fixed Income’s year Ahead 2021: Short-Term Corporate Bonds & Legacy Non-Agency RMBS” yields at the longer end of the yield curve surged (bear steepening) with the US 10-Year Treasury reaching 1.61% (highest level in almost a year).