Economic Insights Archives - Catalyst Insights

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5 min

The Discipline of Forecasting: The Benefits of Systematic Approaches During Uncertainty (Part 1)

The second quarter of 2022 continues with intense volatility. Both equity markets and bond markets continue to unravel the complexities of supply constraints, stagflation, hawkish Fed policy (and the velocity of rate hikes), slower domestic and global economic growth, geopolitical headwinds (i.e., the Russia-Ukraine war), the commodity "Supercycle," persistent COVID-19 demand woes (i.e., China lockdowns), and potential Gray Rhino events (spurred by fears of the current environment). Recessionary fears and a flight to safety remain investors' top priorities.

5 min

“Don’t Be Bearish.” The Inevitable End Of Bad Advice.

“Don’t be bearish.” That was the message delivered by a Wall Street Journal article in August 2021, discussing the “new generation” of “financial media stars.” To wit:

2 min

Catalyst/Rational Instant Reaction: Fed Raises Rates 50 Bps; Takes 75 bp Hike Off Table for June

Catalyst and Rational investment teams initial reaction to today’s 50 bps rate hike from the Federal Reserve and the subsequent Q&A session.

8 min

Buying Stocks Is Easy, Selling Is The Hard: 7 Rules to Manage Risk

Buying stocks is easy; the hard part is knowing when to sell. I read an excellent article recently by Michael Batnick on his trials and tribulations in owning a stock. To wit:

5 min

Is Mining the Next Shale?

Before there were Saudis – there were Texans. In 1948, U.S. oil production and reserves accounted for 64 percent and 34 percent of the global total. Texas was the largest U.S. producer by far, accounting for 45 percent of total U.S. production.

5 min

The Gray Rhinos: The Long-Term Investment that Hedges Tactical Volatility Opportunities

Last week inflation reached its highest level since 1981 (CPI MoM = 8.5%), aligning with the whirlwind of macro, policy, geopolitical, and social uncertainty, putting downside pressure across asset classes throughout 2022.

2 min

Don’t Fight the Fed

Investors concerned about the prospect of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may find it beneficial to review the historical performance of balanced portfolios during previous periods of rising interest rates.

5 min

Economic Insights

Goldman Sachs Destroys An Investing Myth?

Did Goldman Sachs destroy a persistent myth about investing in stocks? Sam Ro recently suggested such was the case for the “sacred CAPE ratio.”

7 min

Bailouts and the Demise Of Capitalism and Free Markets

Bailouts are the root cause of the dysfunction of capitalism and the demise of free markets.

6 min

Recession Risk: Rising Rapidly (Or, Could We Be In One Already?)

Recession risk is rising rapidly. In fact, it is possible that we may already be in one.

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