Eric serves as a Portfolio Manager and a member of the Investment Committee at Accuvest Global Advisors, sub-advisor to a consumer-oriented strategy at Rational Funds. As a member of the Investment Committee, his responsibilities include research, investment analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic commentary, and portfolio strategy & implementation. Eric is a frequent writer about the power of the consumer spending theme and global consumption trends. He is a brand consultant and leads the Alpha Brands Consumer Spending Index committee. He holds the Series 7 and 66 licenses.
If you’re a highly relevant brand with a significant online presence, you’re likely performing very well in the deepest recession of our lifetimes. If you have been slow to adopt an online presence, you’re behind the eight-ball now.
In this blog post, I want to discuss the virtues of being more active with regard to asset allocation decisions. In up-trending bull markets, a buy and hold approach for clients is fine, but when markets turn to sideways or are down biased, a more active allocation approach is warranted if one desires a better return and risk profile.
We recently saw the primary driver of the U.S. economy, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) plummet by the most on record. That’s what happens when 320 million people aren’t supposed to go out of their houses much and most physical stores are closed by the state and federal government.
2020 will likely turn out to be one of the most difficult markets to navigate for investors, financial advisors, and portfolio managers. It’s in difficult times that strategies get battle tested. Most everyone looks smart when the trend is with you and the economy is strong and accelerating.
It’s really bad out there in small business land as witnessed by the above chart. Unemployment has gone parabolic and there’s likely a bit more to go to potentially have 10%+ unemployment in the U.S. The rapid move from <3.5% unemployment to >10% unemployment will be the fastest in history.
On a very short-term basis, my panic metrics are as stretched as they ever get. At any given time, the market can rally like it has earlier this week (+8% for the S&P 500 as I type). The rubber band only stretches so far before it needs some relief.