Consumer Spending: Are Consumers Tapped Out or Pushing Back?
Key Summary:
Sentiment towards the consumer and spending is about as negative as I’ve seen.
Assets...
The opportunity in front of investors is unlike anything we have ever seen because the size of the current wealth transfer is unprecedented in world history.
Core allocations should be highly correlated to core themes around the globe. Global consumer spending is 60% of the world’s $100 trillion GDP or $60 trillion per year.
Core allocations should be highly correlated to core themes around the globe. Global consumer spending is 60% of the world’s $100 trillion GDP or $60 trillion per year.
if the S&P 500 Index has generated an annualized return of roughly 8-10% over the long-term, leading companies serving important industries should, in theory, generate 300bps+ more over long periods of time. Understanding this and investing for it offers investors a long-term edge.
In every aspect of our lives, when we see bargains in merchandise we love, we buy more. As consumers, we get excited to capture a sale, but as investors, we run from sales. Flip this narrative around and we become great investors.
Leading companies serving large end-markets will tend to outperform over time. On the rare occasions when they struggle, that’s usually a time to be adding to those companies.
After a challenging July that saw investors sell off high-flying technology stocks, buyers returned to the market in August, bidding up risk assets across the board.
Allocators add new exposures for a variety of reasons; diversification, returns, risk mitigation, etc. Understanding this, what is the most over-owned and expensive sector today?
After a red-hot June built on expectations that the Federal Reserve may succeed at killing inflation without killing the economy, July saw investors begin to question the soft-landing narrative.
It looks like a big margin call started in Japan. The Japanese Yen has become a funding currency in recent years, a source of cheap financing with the proceeds reinvested in better returning assets – such as US$ listed AI stocks.
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