White Papers Archives - Catalyst Insights

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An Orderly Sell-Off

Given the challenges facing the markets over the intermediate term from a “contested election,” a lack of financial support, a pandemic resurgence, and economic disruption, the risk of a deeper correction remains.

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The Presidential Election Correction Continues

Since President Roosevelt’s victory in 1944, there have only been two losses during presidential election years: 2000 and 2008. Those two years corresponded with the “Dot.com Crash” and the “Financial Crisis.” On average, stocks produced their second-best performance in Presidential election years.

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A Permanent Shift to Stock Valuations?

During extended bull markets, rationalization becomes commonplace to justify overpaying for value. One such rationalization is the permanent shift in valuations higher due to changes in accounting rules, share buybacks, and greater adoption by the public of investing (aka ETFs.).

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Five Reasons the Fed’s New Policy Won’t Get Inflation

So, to be clear, the Fed’s new policy is simply to “average the inflation rate” over a period of time and let the unemployment rate fall to as low as 2.5%. The last time the unemployment rate was at 2.5% was for one quarter in 1953 just before the 1954 recession set in.

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Do Low Interest Rates Justify High Stock Valuations?

The belief this time is different from the past has always been the most dangerous of phrases for investors. However, this is where participants exist today. While it is true the excessive monetary liquidity has certainly changed short-term market dynamics; there is no evidence it has mitigated long-term consequences.

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Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings Don’t Support Bullish Thesis

With the second quarter of the 2020 reporting season mostly behind us, and with markets testing “all-time” highs, do earnings support the bullish thesis? Such is the fundamental question surrounding the debate over the record deviation between “momentum” and “growth.”

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8 min

#Macroview: Why Soros Just Called the Market A Bubble

In a previous post "Market Bubbles," I touched on George Soros' "theory of reflexivity." Interestingly, MarketWatch discussed with George why he no longer participates in the "bubble." The foundation of his argument comes from his previous work in "Alchemy of Finance."

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7 min

Bulls Charge to All-Time Highs

While weaker economic data has not yet dented the “bullish sentiment” at this juncture, it doesn’t mean it won’t. However, as we have discussed over the last several weeks, a breakout of the consolidation range, which was capped by the June highs, would put all-time highs into focus.

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1 min

Investing in Commodities: Seasonal Factors Make Active Management Necessary

This whitepaper provides trade examples using seasonal charts as guidance for positioning when taking seasonal factors into consideration. Long-only, indexing, and other passive commodity investing strategies may not address seasonal factors, treating investing in commodities as if they were equities, even though they are very di¬fferent.

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Is it Insanely Stupid to Chase Stocks as the Economy Plunges?

While the market has not been able to push above the recent July highs. support is holding at the rising bullish trend line. With the short-term “buy signals” back in play, the bias at the moment is to the upside. However, as we have discussed over the last couple of weeks, July held to its historical trends of strength.

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