Research

The "wisdom of the crowd" isn't always wise to follow. A recent article by Scott Nations via MarketWatch made an excellent point.

"Anatomy of a Bear Market" by Russell Napier is a "must-read" manuscript. Given current market dynamics, a review seems timely. As my colleague, Richard Rosso, CFP, previously penned:

Bailouts are the root cause of the dysfunction of capitalism and the demise of free markets.

Even though the term “stagflation” remains an unconfirmed fear for investors as they try and draw parallels to the 1970s, that does not mean that opportunity does not exist. Rather, it is quite the opposite. A proper understanding of the intricacies of stagflation would indicate that gold, soft commodities, floating-rate bonds, short-term corporate bonds, and legacy non-agency RMBS remain the key asset classes that investors should seek to gain exposure to not only mitigate stagflation risk but to generate higher risk-adjusted returns as well.

Recession risk is rising rapidly. In fact, it is possible that we may already be in one.

Oil spikes have historically negatively impacted economic outcomes. As the chart below shows, oil spikes typically are short-lived due to some exogenous geopolitical event. However, as was the case from 2003-2008, fundamental concerns, in this case, the fear of "peak oil," can lead to more extended periods of higher prices.

Greedy corporations are not causing inflation. Such is despite the claims of many of those on the political left that failed to understand the very basics of economic supply and demand.

Greedy corporations are not causing inflation. Such is despite the claims of many of those on the political left that failed to understand the very basics of economic supply and demand.