Chart of the Week: This Week’s Domestic Economic Results
This Week’s Domestic Economic Results
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Hunter Frey, Analyst
70 posts
Hunter Frey is an Analyst at Catalyst Capital Advisors, LLC and Rational Advisors Inc. covering all in-house equity strategies and an insider buying income-oriented strategy at Catalyst Funds. Mr. Frey received a Bachelor of Science degree in International Business with a focus in Spanish from Gardner-Webb University, Godbold School of Business, and is in pursuit of a Master of Business Administration in Economics and Finance from New York University, Stern School of Business.
What To Expect in Second Half of 2022: A Macro View
As we approach the halfway point of 2022, investors remain uncertain of what to expect throughout the next six months.
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Chart of the Week: Bonds Begin to Diversify Equity Volatility
Bonds Begin to Diversify Equity Volatility
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The Discipline of Forecasting: The Benefits of Systematic Approaches During Uncertainty (Part 1)
The second quarter of 2022 continues with intense volatility. Both equity markets and bond markets continue to unravel the complexities of supply constraints, stagflation, hawkish Fed policy (and the velocity of rate hikes), slower domestic and global economic growth, geopolitical headwinds (i.e., the Russia-Ukraine war), the commodity "Supercycle," persistent COVID-19 demand woes (i.e., China lockdowns), and potential Gray Rhino events (spurred by fears of the current environment). Recessionary fears and a flight to safety remain investors' top priorities.
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Chart of the Week: Both Equities and Bonds Struggle to Start Q2: It is Time for Alternatives
Both Equities and Bonds Struggle to Start Q2: It is Time for Alternatives
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The Gray Rhinos: The Long-Term Investment that Hedges Tactical Volatility Opportunities
Last week inflation reached its highest level since 1981 (CPI MoM = 8.5%), aligning with the whirlwind of macro, policy, geopolitical, and social uncertainty, putting downside pressure across asset classes throughout 2022.
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UPDATED – Case Study: Capitalizing on Stagflation
Even though the term “stagflation” remains an unconfirmed fear for investors as they try and draw parallels to the 1970s, that does not mean that opportunity does not exist. Rather, it is quite the opposite. A proper understanding of the intricacies of stagflation would indicate that gold, soft commodities, floating-rate bonds, short-term corporate bonds, and legacy non-agency RMBS remain the key asset classes that investors should seek to gain exposure to not only mitigate stagflation risk but to generate higher risk-adjusted returns as well.
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Finding Opportunities in a Volatile 2022
Volatility has plagued the markets so far in 2022 as steadfast inflation at almost 8% (a 40 year high), geopolitical strife from the Russia-Ukraine war, commodity price appreciation from agricultural products to industrial metals (because of inflationary pricing and geopolitical sanction hurting supply), and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening agenda (to tame inflation) have been risk-on trades for markets, highlighting macroeconomic uncertainty and projecting a possible slowdown in GDP growth globally.
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Chart of the Week: Opportunistic Soft Commodities Drive Alpha YTD
Opportunistic Soft Commodities Drive Alpha YTD
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