In 2012, Andrew Haldane – currently Chief Economist and the Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and Statistics at the Bank of England – delivered a speech to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming meeting titled, “The Dog and the Frisbee.”
The beginning of the 21st century in investing has witnessed two significant market crashes, including the tech bubble crash and the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It should surprise no one that up until March 2009, managed futures trounced the returns of both stocks and bonds.
Historically, scheduled releases of market-impacting news, such as Federal Reserve meetings, quarterly earnings announcements, and other “known-unknowns” presented pre-determined times where stock market volatility might increase.
Investors have faced a near constant barrage of headlines about the U.S. Treasury curve. The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes has been negative, and at the time of writing this, it’s only barely positive. This undoubtedly leaves us with questions like: Does this mean a recession is imminent?
Since the start of 2012, traditional 60/40 stock and bond portfolios have fared extremely well. That said, I think it’s natural for investors to lump stocks and bonds together, especially when looking at portfolio performance.
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
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