Market Trends & Outlook

The 5000-Year View Of Rates & The Economic Consequences

The fact we have the lowest interest rates in 5000-years is indicative of the economic challenges we face. Such was a note brought to my attention by my colleague Jeffrey Marcus of TPA Analytics

The Global Energy Crisis

The global energy crisis is becoming the biggest investment story of 2021. US consumers are uniquely unaffected so far by spiraling prices for natural gas and coal. Crude oil continues to cause some discomfort at the White House, which regularly pleads with OPEC to offset their own policies by increasing supply.

Is the “Best Way To Invest” Always The Best Way?

Is "buy and hold" always the best way to invest? It is common to see increasing numbers of articles touting the benefits of "armchair" investing during long bull market advances. The last decade has been a boon for the index ETF industry, financial applications, and media websites promoting "buy and hold" investing and diversification strategies.

Is the “Best Way To Invest” Always The Best Way?

Is "buy and hold" always the best way to invest? It is common to see increasing numbers of articles touting the benefits of "armchair" investing during long bull market advances. The last decade has been a boon for the index ETF industry, financial applications, and media websites promoting "buy and hold" investing and diversification strategies.

The Most Valuable Hidden Gem: Investors Should Seek the Hybrid Approach

As the end of the third quarter quickly approaches, many market-moving events have started to challenge the frothy valuations not seen in over two decades. From China's regulatory stampede leading to Evergrande's liquidity squeeze to increased treasury yields, the overall market performance has seen some adverse catalysts.

Deciphering the FOMC’s Tea Leaves

Last week’s FOMC meeting for once gave the market something to ponder. The $120BN of monthly bond buying looks set to taper before the end of the year, and to be down to zero by next summer. Fed buying of mortgage-backed securities has been especially superfluous, as shown by the red-hot housing market.

Deciphering the FOMC’s Tea Leaves

Last week’s FOMC meeting for once gave the market something to ponder. The $120BN of monthly bond buying looks set to taper before the end of the year, and to be down to zero by next summer. Fed buying of mortgage-backed securities has been especially superfluous, as shown by the red-hot housing market.

Dow 40000 – A Huge Disappointment Of Promises

Dow 40000! Yes, it will eventually happen. Such should not be surprising given the massive amounts of global liquidity chasing fewer assets. But while Dow 40,000 will undoubtedly bring out the “Party Hats,” it is also a massive disappointment of the promises made to investors.

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The Fed’s Dilemma: Why Rate Cuts Could Trigger a “Crack-Up Boom”

The crack-up boom happens when everyone tries to get out of a losing currency and into “hard assets” like gold, real estate, and other real things.

Rate Cut Hype Fuels Growth: August 2025 HANDLS Monthly Report

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