Market Trends & Outlook

The year 2022 has started off painfully with equities selling off amid slowing growth prospects, Federal Reserve hinting at rate hikes, persistent inflation, and looming COVID dislocations. Even though US growth rates for 2021 were the highest since 1984, the broader equity market continues to sell off with the S&P 500 Index approaching correction territory (YTD). In tangent, the broader bond market continues to feel the convexity pains of increasing interest rates while commodity prices hit some of the highest levels since 2014. Market volatility remains at the forefront as markets continue to quest for equilibrium.

A Potemkin economy has lured the Fed, economists, and Wall Street analysts into a potentially dangerous assumption of economic normalcy. However, with a review of how we got here, we can better understand the costs and consequences of monetary interventions.

What if the Fed can't hike rates? It's an interesting question and one we delved into in Part 1 – "Fed Won't Hike Rates As Much As Expected." With the January FOMC meeting now behind us, we have much better visibility about the Fed's intentions.

One of our fundamental theses for the decade ahead is that the world is at the outset of a massive energy transition away from fossil fuels in favor of renewables. That is the reason we focus on commodities like copper and nickel, both of which are widely used metals for which demand will increase due to their import to renewable energy technologies.

One of our fundamental theses for the decade ahead is that the world is at the outset of a massive energy transition away from fossil fuels in favor of renewables. That is the reason we focus on commodities like copper and nickel, both of which are widely used metals for which demand will increase due to their import to renewable energy technologies.

Currently, with inflation pushing more than 7%, the highest level in decades, it is not surprising to see the market "pricing in" a more aggressive rate-hiking campaign by the Federal Reserve. As shown via the Daily Shot, the markets expect a certainty of 4-rate hikes in 2022.

It’s easy to sympathize with Cathie Wood’s plaintive cry that value stocks look like a bubble. As long-time energy investors, we’ve watched awestruck as the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) traced out its stratospheric path for both performance and AUM. “Bubble” was a wholly inadequate sobriquet (see ARKK’s Investors Have In Aggregate Lost Money).

“How are you feeling?”  That’s often the way we greet people these days.  As the Omicron variant becomes widespread, negatively impacting most Americans’ lives.