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Investors seeking clarity on the future path of inflation and interest rates struggled to find it in March as key economic indictors sent mixed signals. The month kicked off with a strong February jobs report, with the Labor Department reporting that nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month (against expectations of 198,000). While the February numbers suggested the economy continues to run hot, downward revisions to the December and January reports reduced the initial estimates for those months by 167,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9% in February.

Very Important thesis: If equities generate roughly 8-10% a year over time, leading brands serving the dominant driver of the economy, in theory, should compound at 13%+ over time. We have significant proof on this topic below. For a variety of reasons, the last few years has been difficult for the average stock. Betting against consumption-focused stocks after a below-average 3 years has been a poor investment decision. History is very clear on this topic.

Market Matters Presented by Miax Exchange group. Options pros Joe Tigay and Brian Stutland talk about the weeks news, the bubble forming in AI, and trade earnings in CRWD Crowdstrike.

Following several years of strong issuance of convertible securities, many investors are digging in to learn more about the unique characteristics of an instrument...

Volatility experts, financial advisors Brian Stutland and Joe Tigay break down last weeks federal reserves statement coupled with Jerome Powel's interview on 60 minutes. Brian has an earnings trade on Palantir. Joe explains long call spreads in options 101.

In theory, a group of leading companies serving a very large and growing market should also be a solid investment opportunity. Testing this theory using a look-back of the actual performance of a basket of leading Consumer Discretionary brands offers some proof to this thesis.

January 12, 2024 - Today’s Producer Price Index report supports the notion that inflation has essentially been defeated.  PPI fell to negative headline MoM, 0% core MoM, 1.8% YoY core change, and 1.0% YoY headline change.

The producer price index (PPI) release, which generally reflects wholesale prices, which ultimately feed into consumer prices, was below estimates on all fronts this morning (including core).