Hunter Frey, Analyst

Even though the term “stagflation” remains an unconfirmed fear for investors as they try and draw parallels to the 1970s, that does not mean that opportunity does not exist. Rather, it is quite the opposite. A proper understanding of the intricacies of stagflation would indicate that gold, soft commodities, floating-rate bonds, short-term corporate bonds, and legacy non-agency RMBS remain the key asset classes that investors should seek to gain exposure to not only mitigate stagflation risk but to generate higher risk-adjusted returns as well.

Volatility has plagued the markets so far in 2022 as steadfast inflation at almost 8% (a 40 year high), geopolitical strife from the Russia-Ukraine war, commodity price appreciation from agricultural products to industrial metals (because of inflationary pricing and geopolitical sanction hurting supply), and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening agenda (to tame inflation) have been risk-on trades for markets, highlighting macroeconomic uncertainty and projecting a possible slowdown in GDP growth globally.

Opportunistic Soft Commodities Drive Alpha YTD

Opportunistic Soft Commodities Drive Alpha YTD

Yield Curve: Yields Have Increased Across the Curve Since 12/31/2021

January CPI (Inflation) Hits a 40-Year High

January CPI (Inflation) Hits a 40-Year High

The year 2022 has started off painfully with equities selling off amid slowing growth prospects, Federal Reserve hinting at rate hikes, persistent inflation, and looming COVID dislocations. Even though US growth rates for 2021 were the highest since 1984, the broader equity market continues to sell off with the S&P 500 Index approaching correction territory (YTD). In tangent, the broader bond market continues to feel the convexity pains of increasing interest rates while commodity prices hit some of the highest levels since 2014. Market volatility remains at the forefront as markets continue to quest for equilibrium.