Tag: outlook

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Monitoring Extremes in Retail Investor Sentiment Offers a Wonderful Edge

There are many ways to track consumer and investor sentiment. Generally, only at extremes does the data offer very compelling investment opportunities.

History is Projecting Volatility to SPIKE in 2024

The AAII Investor Sentiment is painting an intriguing picture as we step into the third week of increasing bullish sentiment.

History is Projecting Volatility to SPIKE in 2024

The AAII Investor Sentiment is painting an intriguing picture as we step into the third week of increasing bullish sentiment.

Navigating the Santa Claus Rally

Last week’s market surge carried the November rally forward, a momentum fueled by a significant repricing of interest rates in the bond market. Since the last Federal Reserve meeting, rates have taken a dramatic dip, sparking optimism in the market.

Broad Market Participation Could be the Story in 2024

CPI is now stable and trending modestly lower with the Fed able to be patient. The stage is now set for broader participation across size & style boxes.

A Market Sentiment Check: Bearishness is High, Forward Expectations are Low.

One report I always enjoy getting is the AAII individual investors’ stock sentiment survey. In yesterday’s report, 50.3% of investors reported they are bearish on stocks. For reference, the historical average for bearishness is 31%.

A Market Sentiment Check: Bearishness is High, Forward Expectations are Low.

One report I always enjoy getting is the AAII individual investors’ stock sentiment survey. In yesterday’s report, 50.3% of investors reported they are bearish on stocks. For reference, the historical average for bearishness is 31%.

Volatility Zone: Joe Tigay on the Market’s Early Week Rebound and October’s Jobs Report

Volatility is down to start the week as the market is rebouding. Look for the market to move on the Jobs number on friday.  Watch OIL as a sign for global growth and the risks of escalation in war.

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David Miller on CNBC’s Market Navigator: Will Overheating Hurt Nvidia?

Will Mag 7 stock Nvidia beat estimates? David Miller, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Catalyst Funds, Rational Funds, and Strategy Shares, provided his insights to CNBC on Nov. 19 on why he believes the company will come out ahead this week despite potentially challenging headlines.

Chart of the Week: is the Stock Market Getting Ahead of Itself?

In October, Goldman Sachs strategists cautioned investors to be prepared for stock market returns during the next decade that are toward the lower end of their typical performance distribution.

What’s the Real Value of Active Management?

In my opinion, true active strategies have a very important role in portfolios as complements to passive, cheap beta. Advisors need to understand what they own.

Election Trepidation: October 2024 HANDLS Monthly Report

October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.

The Election Results Are In. The Market Likes the Results.

As an investor, it’s nice to know what we should expect from President Trump, because we have seen the movie before in 2017 – 2021. Apart from the early part of the Pandemic period, the economy and stock markets generally performed well.
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