We know intuitively, buying great merchandise on sale is something consumers love. Ironically, in the investment business, when great stocks go on sale, investors tend to freeze or sell. That’s a mistake.
Aggregate spending is a bit above the long-term trend, so we expect the spending dynamic to change as consumers continue to make important choices. As personal income goes positive as inflation cools over time, positive spending and saving dynamics will emerge.
Aggregate spending is a bit above the long-term trend, so we expect the spending dynamic to change as consumers continue to make important choices. As personal income goes positive as inflation cools over time, positive spending and saving dynamics will emerge.
When consumers were locked in their homes and shopping online, savings rates and goods spending went parabolic. When things go parabolic, they should be expected to mean revert to the long-term trend over time. That’s exactly what has happened with Retail Sales and the components within this $7 trillion per year component of GDP.
The recent shift in tariff policies has added a layer of complexity to the economic landscape, potentially influencing market sentiment and investment decisions.
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