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According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the contraction lasted just two months, from February 2020 to April 2020. However, during those two months, the economy fell by 31.4% (GDP), and the financial markets plunged by 33%. Both of those declines, as shown in the table below, are within historical norms.

Knowledge vs. experience. When it comes to investing, such is what separates long-term success from failure.

Bond yields are sending an economic warning as this past week 10-year Treasury yields dropped back to 1.3%. With the simultaneous surge in the dollar, there is rising evidence the economic “reflation” trade is getting unwound.

“Warnings From Behind The Curtain” almost sounds like the title of a good “Cold War” fiction novel. However, this time, the story is of warnings for investors not often discussed by the mainstream media.

“Warnings From Behind The Curtain” almost sounds like the title of a good “Cold War” fiction novel. However, this time, the story is of warnings for investors not often discussed by the mainstream media.

Well, that was undoubtedly an exciting bought of volatility. Last week, we reviewed our “signals” and the market sell-off.

Well, that was undoubtedly an exciting bought of volatility. Last week, we reviewed our “signals” and the market sell-off.

Currently, depending on whether you are “bullish” or “bearish,” there is much angst over the prospect of higher inflation. If you are bullish, higher inflation is a reflection of surging economic growth. If you are bearish, higher inflation leads to rising costs and higher rates. However, we need a better definition of what inflation is.