“Geopolitical Risk” could well be a reason for the Fed to slow-roll tightening monetary policy in March. With Russia invading Ukraine, such would not be the first time that the Fed used “geopolitical risk” to remain cautious on changes to monetary policy.
“Geopolitical Risk” could well be a reason for the Fed to slow-roll tightening monetary policy in March. With Russia invading Ukraine, such would not be the first time that the Fed used “geopolitical risk” to remain cautious on changes to monetary policy.
Earnings estimates are more deviated from long-term growth trends than at any point in history. As a result, analysts and Wall Street are overly optimistic as the Fed tightens monetary policy against a potentially disinflationary environment.
Earnings estimates are more deviated from long-term growth trends than at any point in history. As a result, analysts and Wall Street are overly optimistic as the Fed tightens monetary policy against a potentially disinflationary environment.
A Potemkin economy has lured the Fed, economists, and Wall Street analysts into a potentially dangerous assumption of economic normalcy. However, with a review of how we got here, we can better understand the costs and consequences of monetary interventions.
Currently, with inflation pushing more than 7%, the highest level in decades, it is not surprising to see the market "pricing in" a more aggressive rate-hiking campaign by the Federal Reserve. As shown via the Daily Shot, the markets expect a certainty of 4-rate hikes in 2022.
Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks. That may sound like a strange statement when you look at major stock market indexes hovering near all-time highs. However, much like an iceberg, what we see on the surface hides much of what lies beneath.
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
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