Last week, the Bureau of economic analysis released revisions to the GDP report for the first quarter of 2020. It fell from a 2.3% annual real growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2019 to a -5% rate in the first.
As noted last week, the markets remain stuck between the 50- and 200-dma. That remained the case this week once again, keeping any expansion of equity positioning on hold.
How long will the recession last? How deep will it be? What are the long-term implications for the economy, markets, and society? The global pandemic has ushered in a period of extreme uncertainty and investors are left with too many unanswered questions and afraid for their portfolios. Where do we go from here?
How long will the recession last? How deep will it be? What are the long-term implications for the economy, markets, and society? The global pandemic has ushered in a period of extreme uncertainty and investors are left with too many unanswered questions and afraid for their portfolios. Where do we go from here?
By most measures U.S. stocks and global bonds have pushed well into high valuation territory, which has preceded periods of very-low prospective returns in the past. For investors to achieve the same results as they achieved over the past 10 years in the next decade, we will have to experience a third major bubble in a row.
October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.
As an investor, it’s nice to know what we should expect from President Trump, because we have seen the movie before in 2017 – 2021. Apart from the early part of the Pandemic period, the economy and stock markets generally performed well.
Remember, our investment in stocks is a De facto vote of confidence on the economies in which we invest. Earnings, revenue, margins, free cash flow, and the growth of these important metrics is what drives stocks up or down over time.
The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.
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