Since President Roosevelt’s victory in 1944, there have only been two losses during presidential election years: 2000 and 2008. Those two years corresponded with the “Dot.com Crash” and the “Financial Crisis.” On average, stocks produced their second-best performance in Presidential election years.
Most MBS securitizations contain a call right that is vested with the servicer of the bonds. Imagine a pool of 4,000 30-year mortgages. By the time year 29 comes around, there may be less than 50 mortgages remaining. So the servicer is not stuck collecting from 50 mortgagees and applying those payments to various bonds, the call right allows the servicer to call the outstanding bonds and possibly re-securitize the remaining mortgages with other mortgages from other trusts that may have also been called. Typically, these call rights trigger when there is less than 5% to 10% of the original principal value of the trust remaining.
Most MBS securitizations contain a call right that is vested with the servicer of the bonds. Imagine a pool of 4,000 30-year mortgages. By the time year 29 comes around, there may be less than 50 mortgages remaining. So the servicer is not stuck collecting from 50 mortgagees and applying those payments to various bonds, the call right allows the servicer to call the outstanding bonds and possibly re-securitize the remaining mortgages with other mortgages from other trusts that may have also been called. Typically, these call rights trigger when there is less than 5% to 10% of the original principal value of the trust remaining.
During extended bull markets, rationalization becomes commonplace to justify overpaying for value. One such rationalization is the permanent shift in valuations higher due to changes in accounting rules, share buybacks, and greater adoption by the public of investing (aka ETFs.).
During extended bull markets, rationalization becomes commonplace to justify overpaying for value. One such rationalization is the permanent shift in valuations higher due to changes in accounting rules, share buybacks, and greater adoption by the public of investing (aka ETFs.).
So, to be clear, the Fed’s new policy is simply to “average the inflation rate” over a period of time and let the unemployment rate fall to as low as 2.5%. The last time the unemployment rate was at 2.5% was for one quarter in 1953 just before the 1954 recession set in.
So, to be clear, the Fed’s new policy is simply to “average the inflation rate” over a period of time and let the unemployment rate fall to as low as 2.5%. The last time the unemployment rate was at 2.5% was for one quarter in 1953 just before the 1954 recession set in.
Investors need to understand that the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is not the same as VIX futures, and this has important implications when it comes to trying to hedge a portfolio with a long volatility approach. The VIX index itself is a fantastic indicator of 30-day implied volatility. VIX futures are simply the market’s best guess where the VIX index will be on settlement at that point in time.
October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.
As an investor, it’s nice to know what we should expect from President Trump, because we have seen the movie before in 2017 – 2021. Apart from the early part of the Pandemic period, the economy and stock markets generally performed well.
Remember, our investment in stocks is a De facto vote of confidence on the economies in which we invest. Earnings, revenue, margins, free cash flow, and the growth of these important metrics is what drives stocks up or down over time.
The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.
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