Research

It is a given that you should never mention the “R” word. People immediately assume you mean the end of the world: death, disaster, and destruction. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the U.S. Government also believe that recessions “are bad.” As such, they have gone to great lengths to avoid them. However, what if “recessions are a good thing,” and we just let them happen?

There is currently much hope for another fiscal stimulus package to be delivered to the economy from Congress. While President Trump recently doused hopes of a quick passage, there a demand for more stimulus by both parties. While most hope more stimulus will cure the economy’s ills, it will likely disappoint due to the “second derivative effect.”

There has been a significant ongoing litigation that involves several trusts that were organized by JP Morgan. This litigation is at its end-stage, and, at this point, there are minor court rulings coming out. The court rulings involve the timing as well as the amount of the settlement that needs to be paid out to each trust by JP Morgan. ESM is constantly looking at these bonds when they are offered into the market.

Everything was working according to plan this week, until Friday morning. As news hit that President Trump and the First Lady contracted COVID-19, so did the market at the open with Dow down roughly 450 points.

Given the challenges facing the markets over the intermediate term from a “contested election,” a lack of financial support, a pandemic resurgence, and economic disruption, the risk of a deeper correction remains.

Given the challenges facing the markets over the intermediate term from a “contested election,” a lack of financial support, a pandemic resurgence, and economic disruption, the risk of a deeper correction remains.

The asset management industry is dominated by a buy-hold-hope mentality, which makes sense in most cases because, statistically, the equity markets go higher 80% of the time. We are taught that to achieve great long-term returns, we must be willing to ride through periods of high volatility and that corrections happen along the way. Considering that the long-term average peak-to-trough drawdown in the S&P 500 is 14%, I believe that most financial advisors and clients would agree that a smoother ride would be the preferred way. Strong returns with lower volatility along the way sounds a lot like having your cake and eating it too. What if this might be possible?

The asset management industry is dominated by a buy-hold-hope mentality, which makes sense in most cases because, statistically, the equity markets go higher 80% of the time. We are taught that to achieve great long-term returns, we must be willing to ride through periods of high volatility and that corrections happen along the way. Considering that the long-term average peak-to-trough drawdown in the S&P 500 is 14%, I believe that most financial advisors and clients would agree that a smoother ride would be the preferred way. Strong returns with lower volatility along the way sounds a lot like having your cake and eating it too. What if this might be possible?