After 40-years of economic erosion, there are still deficit deniers.
The belief that debt and deficits “don’t matter” primarily stems from the basis the economy hasn’t collapsed and become a historical equivalent of Weimer, Germany. However, the rather elementary view fails to distinguish that dropping a frog into boiling water or slowly bringing the water to a boil equates to the same outcome. That latter just takes longer to get there.
After 40-years of economic erosion, there are still deficit deniers.
The belief that debt and deficits “don’t matter” primarily stems from the basis the economy hasn’t collapsed and become a historical equivalent of Weimer, Germany. However, the rather elementary view fails to distinguish that dropping a frog into boiling water or slowly bringing the water to a boil equates to the same outcome. That latter just takes longer to get there.
Gold. What’s wrong with it? From spiking inflation, falling real interest rates, and massive money printing, it seems logical that gold, a touted inflation hedge, should be rising. Yet, so far this year, gold has done little.
Stretched valuations in many stock and bond markets are challenging investors to look farther afield to meet investor return targets. Many investors find themselves recommending portfolios that are uncomfortably far out along the risk curve, stretching for higher yields and increasing pro-cyclical asset exposure.
October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.
As an investor, it’s nice to know what we should expect from President Trump, because we have seen the movie before in 2017 – 2021. Apart from the early part of the Pandemic period, the economy and stock markets generally performed well.
Remember, our investment in stocks is a De facto vote of confidence on the economies in which we invest. Earnings, revenue, margins, free cash flow, and the growth of these important metrics is what drives stocks up or down over time.
The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.
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