Market Trends & Outlook

Positive Inflections Everywhere: Short-term Overbought, Intermediate Term Still Oversold

Most investors have been caught flat-footed and under-exposed to stocks. More and more stocks, sectors and industries are breaking 2-year downtrends with fundamentals positively inflecting after a tough few years of rolling recessions and slowdowns.

Positive Inflections Everywhere: Short-term Overbought, Intermediate Term Still Oversold

Most investors have been caught flat-footed and under-exposed to stocks. More and more stocks, sectors and industries are breaking 2-year downtrends with fundamentals positively inflecting after a tough few years of rolling recessions and slowdowns.

Abrams: PPI and CPI Data Releases Show We’ve Essentially Reached Fed’s Target

The producer price index (PPI) release, which generally reflects wholesale prices, which ultimately feed into consumer prices, was below estimates on all fronts this morning (including core).

Bond Rally Boosts Pipelines

Bonds had a great month in November. Indications that the Fed will pause again were extrapolated into easing expectations as soon as next quarter. Lower yields help the relative valuation of equities, although Factset earnings forecasts are no longer trending upwards.

Ending the Fall Season Strong: November 2023 HANDLS Monthly Income Report

Securities markets shrugged off a challenging three months and delivered robust gains across the board in November as hopes for a soft economic landing gained ground among investors.

Monitoring Extremes in Retail Investor Sentiment Offers a Wonderful Edge

There are many ways to track consumer and investor sentiment. Generally, only at extremes does the data offer very compelling investment opportunities.

History is Projecting Volatility to SPIKE in 2024

The AAII Investor Sentiment is painting an intriguing picture as we step into the third week of increasing bullish sentiment.

History is Projecting Volatility to SPIKE in 2024

The AAII Investor Sentiment is painting an intriguing picture as we step into the third week of increasing bullish sentiment.

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Short-Term Noise Can Lead to Long-Term Opportunity

If you only take one thing from today’s writing, take this: storms are a sideshow to sunnier days.