Market Trends & Outlook

In last week's blog, I highlighted the positive long-term track records of a handful of the most admired brands to show how important the consumption thematic is for investors. I also showed the corrections that happen along the way as a reminder that stocks do not always go straight up, nor does a basket of stocks always outperform. Over the long-term, however, the data is very clear. The Consumer Discretionary & Tech sectors have a very strong track record versus the overall market as measured by the S&P 500. Today, it's important to widen the lens as the Consumer Discretionary & Tech sectors struggle with rising rates and a difficult macro environment. The important point, however, is to not get shaken out of owning great companies when they are underperforming. If you loved these companies and sectors when they were outperforming, you should love them even more now that they are experiencing a rare period of underperformance.

Asset bubbles have been prevalent throughout history. Whether it was the “Tulip bubble” in the 1600s, the South Sea bubble of the 1700s, or the Dot.com bubble of 2000, they were all a result of excessive investor speculation.

Historically, equity markets are positive roughly 80% of the time, or 8 out of 10 years. So far this year, they are negative. In addition, the average annual drawdown peak to trough is ~14% (source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets Report).

While the Federal Reserve is focused on fighting inflation and willing to cause “some pain” to achieve victory, they hope to do so without evoking a recession. Such may be a challenge for two primary reasons:

The “Rule Of 20” says the “bear market” may just be resting despite much commentary to the contrary. In a recent Investing.com article, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian warned clients that stocks are still expensive despite this year’s drawdown.

Markets enjoyed a strong start to August, continuing a rally that saw rising asset values across the board in July. Alas, the second half of the month proved more challenging for investors, with prices of stocks and bonds suffering steep declines. For the month, the Core Large Cap Equity category re-turned -4.7% while the Core Fixed Income Category came in at -2.9%.

Markets enjoyed a strong start to August, continuing a rally that saw rising asset values across the board in July. Alas, the second half of the month proved more challenging for investors, with prices of stocks and bonds suffering steep declines. For the month, the Core Large Cap Equity category re-turned -4.7% while the Core Fixed Income Category came in at -2.9%.

The bear market is over. While that statement fills the mainstream media, it remains a hotly debated question in every media forum. It is an interesting point considering that it was just in June we were answering the question of “when will this bear market end?”