The big question facing the Fed is whether they should increase the Fed Funds rate by 25bps or 50bps on March 22, 2023. If Jerome Powell cared for our advice, we would tell him to take the opposite approach of President Theodore Roosevelt. Speak loudly because your stick isn’t that big anymore.
In the wake of a challenging year, markets provided a respite for income investors in January. The Core Large Cap Equity category delivered a 9.2% rally, powered by a rebound in beaten-down technology stocks. On the fixed income side, signs of moderating inflation pushed down interest rates, driving the Core Fixed Income category to a 3.3% return.
Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. Such leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity markets but not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery.
The hope is that despite the Fed hiking rates at the most aggressive pace since 1980, reducing its balance sheet via quantitative tightening, and inflation running at the highest levels since the 70s, the economy will continue to power forward.
Capping a brutal year for income investors, both the equity and fixed-income markets lost ground in December. The Core Large Cap Equity category returned -7.8% while the Core Fixed Income category delivered a -0.8% return. Concerns about inflation and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy on future economic growth continued to serve as headwinds for both equities and bonds.
In case you missed last week's blog, I'll start with the same theme. There's been significant damage to asset prices in 2022. Last year was one of the most difficult environments for investors in almost every asset class. Here's the updated 60/40 portfolio yearly scorecard going back in time via a recent report from Private Equity leader, KKR:
The recent shift in tariff policies has added a layer of complexity to the economic landscape, potentially influencing market sentiment and investment decisions.
There are several powerful mega-trends happening around the world. One of these trends is happening in the financial services industry and is still a game in the early innings.
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