Market Trends & Outlook

Restrictive monetary conditions, from higher yields and tighter lending conditions, are the Fed’s “Waterloo.” If you don’t remember, the “Battle of Waterloo” was fought on June 18th, 1815. The battle was a catastrophic defeat for the Napoleonic forces and marked the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Before that defeat, Napolean had a successful campaign of waging war in Europe.

Restrictive monetary conditions, from higher yields and tighter lending conditions, are the Fed’s “Waterloo.” If you don’t remember, the “Battle of Waterloo” was fought on June 18th, 1815. The battle was a catastrophic defeat for the Napoleonic forces and marked the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Before that defeat, Napolean had a successful campaign of waging war in Europe.

As the “soft landing” narrative grows, the risk of a “crisis” event in the economy increases. Will the Fed trigger another crisis event? While unknown, the risk seems likely as the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative is compromised by lagging economic data.

Investors should expect to see continued bouts of volatility across equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies. Don’t be afraid of the VOL, embrace it by implementing some strategies that love operating in a higher VOL regime.

Investors should expect to see continued bouts of volatility across equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies. Don’t be afraid of the VOL, embrace it by implementing some strategies that love operating in a higher VOL regime.

Last week the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released their 2023 International Energy Outlook. It came out on Wednesday, the same day that Exxon Mobil (XOM) confirmed their acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and they’re linked in more ways than simply their announcement date.

Last week the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released their 2023 International Energy Outlook. It came out on Wednesday, the same day that Exxon Mobil (XOM) confirmed their acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and they’re linked in more ways than simply their announcement date.

"Don't follow the headlines...follow the trendlines, follow the chart lines, and they're going to tell you everything we need to know," says Joe Tigay of Equity Armor, who provides his insights on how investors should follow the markets in the wake of recent current events.