As I wrote this blog, the S&P 500 index is up roughly 17% year-to-date. Most likely, your portfolio isn’t. This is a common frustration among many investors in the market this year in particular. As discussed previously, the S&P 500 index performance is a bit deceiving. The majority of the gain in the market this year has come from essentially seven stocks with the largest concentration in the index in terms of market capitalization.
Last week’s market surge carried the November rally forward, a momentum fueled by a significant repricing of interest rates in the bond market. Since the last Federal Reserve meeting, rates have taken a dramatic dip, sparking optimism in the market.
When looking at the markets on the day of the October CPI release (Nov. 14) vs. later in the week (Nov. 16), you’ll notice there’s been a big shift in thinking, with ZERO additional rate hikes priced in from the Federal Reserve, signaling their fight against inflation may be coming to an end. A June rate cut has actually been priced in, and there are signs that it’s inching even earlier.
CPI is now stable and trending modestly lower with the Fed able to be patient. The stage is now set for broader participation across size & style boxes.
Securities markets continued to struggle in October in the face of rising interest rates and concerns about whether the Federal Reserve might continue its monetary tightening policy.
Securities markets continued to struggle in October in the face of rising interest rates and concerns about whether the Federal Reserve might continue its monetary tightening policy.
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
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