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As we approach the end of the summer, Covid-19 health risks remain prevalent. The new delta variant continues to shed uncertainty around a robust economic recovery. Amid the new variant’s increasing infection rates (even in vaccinated individuals), the Federal Reserve announced that the in-person plans for the Jackson Hole symposium would be replaced with a virtual event on August 27, 2021.

The question I get most often is, “when is the next bear market?” Three specific items tend to predict bear markets and recessions with some accuracy.

The question I get most often is, “when is the next bear market?” Three specific items tend to predict bear markets and recessions with some accuracy.

The most recent CPI report was a little better than expected – all-items less food and energy was up 4.3% year-on-year. Used car prices had boosted prior inflation figures but were up just 0.2% in July.

The most recent CPI report was a little better than expected – all-items less food and energy was up 4.3% year-on-year. Used car prices had boosted prior inflation figures but were up just 0.2% in July.

The most relevant brands serving key consumption markets are often top perming stocks. Peloton is a great example since the IPO in September 2019.

The most relevant brands serving key consumption markets are often top perming stocks. Peloton is a great example since the IPO in September 2019.

On Monday, July 19, 2021, the Dow’s worst day of 2021 unfolded. Virus-sensitive assets (energy and travel sectors) sold off as less optimistic growth outlooks emerged from concerns of the increasing delta variant cases. Delta variant concerns coupled with skepticism of transitory inflation, decreasing bond yields, and incomplete economic recovery create a perplexing cocktail of potential economic outcomes.