Economic Insights

As thematic investors who assess global consumer spending trends, we have so many exciting secular trends to explore. One of the largest and most prominent consumption trends is the dramatic rise in Fintech innovation and the slow but steady death of cash as the primary method of transactions. Cash used as a percent of total global purchase transactions is estimated to be roughly 70% so it’s still very large.

We are now, approximately one year from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic’s onset in the United States. In short, we remain in the midst of a stock market rotation away from “momentum” stocks fueled by COVID-related shutdowns and societal adaptations towards “value” stocks that remain historically cheap and consist of cyclical laggards.

The economic recovery and reflation tailwinds wreaked havoc on stocks and other risk assets last week. As predicted in “Fixed Income’s year Ahead 2021: Short-Term Corporate Bonds & Legacy Non-Agency RMBS” yields at the longer end of the yield curve surged (bear steepening) with the US 10-Year Treasury reaching 1.61% (highest level in almost a year).

The economic recovery and reflation tailwinds wreaked havoc on stocks and other risk assets last week. As predicted in “Fixed Income’s year Ahead 2021: Short-Term Corporate Bonds & Legacy Non-Agency RMBS” yields at the longer end of the yield curve surged (bear steepening) with the US 10-Year Treasury reaching 1.61% (highest level in almost a year).

The inflation debate rages on. Will inflation pick up amid vaccine rollouts, fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, and federal reserve quantitative easing (QE)?

January Retail Sales Explodes Past Estimates to $568 Billion Making the Trailing 1-year $6.2 Trillion.

January Retail Sales Explodes Past Estimates to $568 Billion Making the Trailing 1-year $6.2 Trillion.

The stock market seems to be on a tear lately, a great contrast to about a year ago when the markets started to get roiled by Covid-19 developments.