Economic Insights

How Will Fed Chair Powell Respond To The Market?

A significant interest rate move has taken place in recent days that has received scant coverage from mainstream financial media. The market has priced in a more aggressive pace of Fed tightening over the next couple of years, while simultaneously moderating the outlook beyond that. This flattening of the yield curve has been reflected in the spread between two and five year treasury securities, which reversed a steepening trend.

Was Our Stagflation Forecast Correct? One-Year Update

Hindsight is 20/20 and the future is always to a degree uncertain. The same is true when looking at the macro environment whether you are an economist, investor, etc. The current macro environment continues to reside under the COVID-induced cloud of uncertainty, spawning overreactions, underreactions, and misdirection.

The Disequilibrium of Innovation

As we approach the end of the summer, Covid-19 health risks remain prevalent. The new delta variant continues to shed uncertainty around a robust economic recovery. Amid the new variant’s increasing infection rates (even in vaccinated individuals), the Federal Reserve announced that the in-person plans for the Jackson Hole symposium would be replaced with a virtual event on August 27, 2021.

Behind The Fed’s Benign Inflation Outlook

This week the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Most recently released minutes suggest that the gradual cessation of the $120BN in monthly bond buying ($80BN in US treasuries and $40BN in mortgages) is getting closer.

Behind The Fed’s Benign Inflation Outlook

This week the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Most recently released minutes suggest that the gradual cessation of the $120BN in monthly bond buying ($80BN in US treasuries and $40BN in mortgages) is getting closer.

Alternative Approach to Value Investing: Is it “Reflex” or “Novel”?

As the economy continues to recover with inflation increasing, many investors are starting to realize that the tech-fueled V-shaped recovery may have caused equity valuations to trade at a premium.

Top Performing Consumer Stock of the Past Decade

As a follow-up to my last post on the massive investment opportunity in leading luxury goods brands, I wanted to drill down into a particular category within the luxury goods industry. 

The European Enigma: A Macroeconomic & Geo-Political Review of the EU

Predicting the future of any country in the long-term is not easy – which is precisely why the future of that great sleeping geopolitical behemoth, the European Union, is so hard to do.

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How Leading Consumer Brands Have Emerged Stronger Since 2019

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The Market’s “Lost” Moment: How Many Seasons Can This Rally Run?

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The Calm Before the Storm: A Volatility Pro’s Reflection on Markets at All-Time Highs

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