Economic Insights

“Geopolitical Risk” could well be a reason for the Fed to slow-roll tightening monetary policy in March. With Russia invading Ukraine, such would not be the first time that the Fed used “geopolitical risk” to remain cautious on changes to monetary policy.

“Geopolitical Risk” could well be a reason for the Fed to slow-roll tightening monetary policy in March. With Russia invading Ukraine, such would not be the first time that the Fed used “geopolitical risk” to remain cautious on changes to monetary policy.

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs is a stylized pyramid with food and shelter at the base and self-actualization at the top. Maslow wasn’t around to contemplate where ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) aspirations sit on his pyramid, but he would likely have placed them near the summit. The people and institutions most sensitive to ESG have already satisfied the other needs on the pyramid.

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs is a stylized pyramid with food and shelter at the base and self-actualization at the top. Maslow wasn’t around to contemplate where ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) aspirations sit on his pyramid, but he would likely have placed them near the summit. The people and institutions most sensitive to ESG have already satisfied the other needs on the pyramid.

Earnings estimates are more deviated from long-term growth trends than at any point in history. As a result, analysts and Wall Street are overly optimistic as the Fed tightens monetary policy against a potentially disinflationary environment.

Earnings estimates are more deviated from long-term growth trends than at any point in history. As a result, analysts and Wall Street are overly optimistic as the Fed tightens monetary policy against a potentially disinflationary environment.

Economic stagnation arrives as expected as the "Sugar Rush" of liquidity continues to fade from the system.

The year 2022 has started off painfully with equities selling off amid slowing growth prospects, Federal Reserve hinting at rate hikes, persistent inflation, and looming COVID dislocations. Even though US growth rates for 2021 were the highest since 1984, the broader equity market continues to sell off with the S&P 500 Index approaching correction territory (YTD). In tangent, the broader bond market continues to feel the convexity pains of increasing interest rates while commodity prices hit some of the highest levels since 2014. Market volatility remains at the forefront as markets continue to quest for equilibrium.