Economic Insights

Last week inflation reached its highest level since 1981 (CPI MoM = 8.5%), aligning with the whirlwind of macro, policy, geopolitical, and social uncertainty, putting downside pressure across asset classes throughout 2022.

Last week inflation reached its highest level since 1981 (CPI MoM = 8.5%), aligning with the whirlwind of macro, policy, geopolitical, and social uncertainty, putting downside pressure across asset classes throughout 2022.

Investors concerned about the prospect of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may find it beneficial to review the historical performance of balanced portfolios during previous periods of rising interest rates.

Investors concerned about the prospect of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may find it beneficial to review the historical performance of balanced portfolios during previous periods of rising interest rates.

Did Goldman Sachs destroy a persistent myth about investing in stocks? Sam Ro recently suggested such was the case for the “sacred CAPE ratio.”

Bailouts are the root cause of the dysfunction of capitalism and the demise of free markets.

Recession risk is rising rapidly. In fact, it is possible that we may already be in one.

Oil spikes have historically negatively impacted economic outcomes. As the chart below shows, oil spikes typically are short-lived due to some exogenous geopolitical event. However, as was the case from 2003-2008, fundamental concerns, in this case, the fear of "peak oil," can lead to more extended periods of higher prices.