Oil spikes have historically negatively impacted economic outcomes. As the chart below shows, oil spikes typically are short-lived due to some exogenous geopolitical event. However, as was the case from 2003-2008, fundamental concerns, in this case, the fear of "peak oil," can lead to more extended periods of higher prices.
Volatility has plagued the markets so far in 2022 as steadfast inflation at almost 8% (a 40 year high), geopolitical strife from the Russia-Ukraine war, commodity price appreciation from agricultural products to industrial metals (because of inflationary pricing and geopolitical sanction hurting supply), and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening agenda (to tame inflation) have been risk-on trades for markets, highlighting macroeconomic uncertainty and projecting a possible slowdown in GDP growth globally.
It is common knowledge that Russia is a major exporter of oil and natural gas. Just the fear of disruption of Russian energy exports has sent oil and natural gas markets into a tizzy. Russia, however, is not just a Slavic Saudi Arabia.
Greedy corporations are not causing inflation. Such is despite the claims of many of those on the political left that failed to understand the very basics of economic supply and demand.
Greedy corporations are not causing inflation. Such is despite the claims of many of those on the political left that failed to understand the very basics of economic supply and demand.
“Geopolitical Risk” could well be a reason for the Fed to slow-roll tightening monetary policy in March. With Russia invading Ukraine, such would not be the first time that the Fed used “geopolitical risk” to remain cautious on changes to monetary policy.
“Geopolitical Risk” could well be a reason for the Fed to slow-roll tightening monetary policy in March. With Russia invading Ukraine, such would not be the first time that the Fed used “geopolitical risk” to remain cautious on changes to monetary policy.
Will Mag 7 stock Nvidia beat estimates? David Miller, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Catalyst Funds, Rational Funds, and Strategy Shares, provided his insights to CNBC on Nov. 19 on why he believes the company will come out ahead this week despite potentially challenging headlines.
In October, Goldman Sachs strategists cautioned investors to be prepared for stock market returns during the next decade that are toward the lower end of their typical performance distribution.
In my opinion, true active strategies have a very important role in portfolios as complements to passive, cheap beta. Advisors need to understand what they own.
Catalyst Funds
Rational Funds
Strategy Shares