Economic Insights

The 2/10 yield curve is a widely recognized economic indicator that accurately predicts recessions, but its limitations and the tendency for the stock market to rise even as the curve becomes more inverted highlights the need for a deeper understanding of this indicator and the importance of learning from past economic bubbles to prepare for future downturns.

Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. Such leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity markets but not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery.

As in previous years, the Federal Reserve was clear. It said it was going to raise rates, and it did. Many investors learned last year, to their peril, not to fight the Fed. Going forward, the Fed has said it will raise rates and keep them elevated. Many investors will most likely learn the same lesson this year. Don't fight the Fed…

The endowment portfolio characterized by 60 percent in stocks and 40 percent in bonds has thrived over the past four decades, but sustained high inflation has the potential to lower returns and increase volatility in the years ahead. This has prompted an interest in All-Weather portfolios, which combine stocks and bonds with assets like commodities that may respond more favourably to inflation. This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.

The endowment portfolio characterized by 60 percent in stocks and 40 percent in bonds has thrived over the past four decades, but sustained high inflation has the potential to lower returns and increase volatility in the years ahead. This has prompted an interest in All-Weather portfolios, which combine stocks and bonds with assets like commodities that may respond more favourably to inflation. This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.

For those unfamiliar with the term “pig in a python,” it refers to when a python consumes its prey. It does so by swallowing it whole, in this case, a pig. The American-English definition of “pig in a python” became an analogy for the demographic bulge in the U.S.

For those unfamiliar with the term “pig in a python,” it refers to when a python consumes its prey. It does so by swallowing it whole, in this case, a pig. The American-English definition of “pig in a python” became an analogy for the demographic bulge in the U.S.

That is a powerful assessment that, if true, has an overarching impact on the economic and financial markets over the next decade. Such is especially important when considering the effect these repeated monetary and fiscal interventions had on financial market returns over the previous decade.