Economic Insights

In my 30-year career working in financial services, I have been a Financial Advisor, a professional trader, and a long-term investor of iconic brands (along with a host of other roles in the industry). As someone who has worked directly with advisors for most of my career, I have a lot of empathy for you and your team during these tumultuous times. Managing hundreds or thousands of client portfolios is hard enough, but managing their emotions through a cycle is a monumental task, particularly now.

In the "return generation business", institutional investors have a big edge over retail investors. The WHY is what's most important: institutional investors have access to the smartest asset managers in the world, have the time, experience, and resources to assess all potential investment ideas, have a long-term time horizon (wide lens investing), and act opportunistically when asset prices get weak.

The 3-month and 30-year yield curve can provide valuable insights into the state of the economy and future market volatility. By paying attention to the shape of the yield curve, investors can better understand market sentiment and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Let's talk athleisure because it's a powerful secular growth theme and there's some absolutely dominant brands in the category. We can't talk about sneakers and footwear without leading with Nike. Nike is one of the most recognized and loved brands around the world. Once called Blue Ribbon Sports, Nike was founded by Bill Bowerman and Phil Knight in 1964.

We experienced a decade of quantitative easing and declining interest rates that culminated with an unprecedented multi-trillion-dollar infusion of capital in 2020. But three years later, the party had to end. However, we shouldn't cry because quantitative easing is over, we should smile because it happened 🙂 In remembrance of the last decade, I would like to highlight 11 things that were only possible thanks to 0% interest rates.

The difficulties of navigating markets in 2022 are well chronicled. Very difficult years tend to create investor PTSD, which often holds them back from uncovering opportunities. In my conversations with advisors and analyzing money flow data, there appears to be lingering apprehension for risk-taking initiatives.

The 2/10 yield curve is a widely recognized economic indicator that accurately predicts recessions, but its limitations and the tendency for the stock market to rise even as the curve becomes more inverted highlights the need for a deeper understanding of this indicator and the importance of learning from past economic bubbles to prepare for future downturns.

The 2/10 yield curve is a widely recognized economic indicator that accurately predicts recessions, but its limitations and the tendency for the stock market to rise even as the curve becomes more inverted highlights the need for a deeper understanding of this indicator and the importance of learning from past economic bubbles to prepare for future downturns.