Commodity & Infrastructure Insights

For those who malign 2022 simply because of lousy investment returns, poor asset allocation is the cause. More energy exposure and no bonds would have made the year more agreeable.

For those who malign 2022 simply because of lousy investment returns, poor asset allocation is the cause. More energy exposure and no bonds would have made the year more agreeable.

How do you conservatively value illiquid assets in a fund that offers liquidity to existing investors and accepts money from new ones? That’s the unsolvable question inadequately answered by the $125BN Blackstone Real Estate Investment Trust (BREIT), which is why they were forced to suspend withdrawals.

How do you conservatively value illiquid assets in a fund that offers liquidity to existing investors and accepts money from new ones? That’s the unsolvable question inadequately answered by the $125BN Blackstone Real Estate Investment Trust (BREIT), which is why they were forced to suspend withdrawals.

We all know the US tax code is complicated. ALPS Advisors, manager of the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP), has been tripped up by the tax complexities inherent in their fund structure. As a result they’ve been forced to make an embarrassing NAV adjustment to AMLP for taxes, depressing the fund’s NAV by almost 4%. It must be frustrating for recent buyers, since it shifted the fund to a 2.7% monthly loss, 3.9% behind its index.

Long term energy forecasts are nowadays subject to a partisan test by many readers based on whether or not they project a rapid energy transition. The biggest oil and gas producers such as Exxon Mobil and Shell understand that the media interprets their published long run energy forecasts as reflecting their capex criteria. The result is a set of projections leavened with cheerleading for renewable energy, leaving the reader to separate the two.

Following the weaker-than-expected October inflation report, stocks surged on hopes the Fed will “pivot” sooner than later. As we discussed recently, a “policy pivot” is not necessarily bullish but instead suggests more bearish market action will come first. To wit:

2022 should have been a great year for renewables. The prices of fossil fuels, which they are supposed to replace, have jumped. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the importance of energy security, which solar panels and windmills offer because most countries can find places to build them. And global Green House Gas emissions (GHGs) have rebounded following the dip caused by the pandemic. So why aren’t renewables stocks riding high?