As of this writing, the latest U.S. annual inflation rate came at 9.1 percent for the month of June 2022. Milton Friedman, an American economist and recipient of the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, once said, “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” We will share our thoughts regarding the future path of U.S. inflation in the near future (say a year) using the money supply via the monetary base and the M2 money factors. The MacroRisk Analytics platform is utilized to show changes in the money supply and inflation.
As of this writing, the latest U.S. annual inflation rate came at 9.1 percent for the month of June 2022. Milton Friedman, an American economist and recipient of the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, once said, “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” We will share our thoughts regarding the future path of U.S. inflation in the near future (say a year) using the money supply via the monetary base and the M2 money factors. The MacroRisk Analytics platform is utilized to show changes in the money supply and inflation.
Earnings season for the pipeline sector kicks off Wednesday 20th with Kinder Morgan. Crude oil prices have slid over the past several weeks, reflecting increased fears of recession and China’s ongoing efforts to eliminate Covid through regional lockdowns. Sharp moves in oil affect energy sentiment and the consequent drop in midstream energy infrastructure reflects these global macro concerns. Fundamentals continue to look very good to us.
Earnings season for the pipeline sector kicks off Wednesday 20th with Kinder Morgan. Crude oil prices have slid over the past several weeks, reflecting increased fears of recession and China’s ongoing efforts to eliminate Covid through regional lockdowns. Sharp moves in oil affect energy sentiment and the consequent drop in midstream energy infrastructure reflects these global macro concerns. Fundamentals continue to look very good to us.
It’s an odd recession when the economy adds 372K jobs and the unemployment rate stays at 3.6%. We seem to be talking ourselves into one. Consumer expectations are the lowest in almost a decade. High prices for energy and food are the culprit. Few are seeing their incomes keep pace with 8% inflation, so real incomes have taken a significant hit this year.
The energy transition’s long overdue reassessment was already under way by the time Russian missiles began falling on Ukraine. Fear of stranded assets has been replaced by the sudden need for energy security.
After a challenging July that saw investors sell off high-flying technology stocks, buyers returned to the market in August, bidding up risk assets across the board.
Allocators add new exposures for a variety of reasons; diversification, returns, risk mitigation, etc. Understanding this, what is the most over-owned and expensive sector today?
After a red-hot June built on expectations that the Federal Reserve may succeed at killing inflation without killing the economy, July saw investors begin to question the soft-landing narrative.
It looks like a big margin call started in Japan. The Japanese Yen has become a funding currency in recent years, a source of cheap financing with the proceeds reinvested in better returning assets – such as US$ listed AI stocks.
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