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Posts by author

George Arzumanyan, Portfolio Manager

12 posts

George Arzumanyan performs investment research and analysis using macroeconomic information. He is also a portfolio manager for Walnut Oak Capital LLC. Additionally, he has been a consultant and expert at Phillips Fractor & Company, LLC since 2013. His current consulting focus is in areas of statistics, finance, economics, and valuation. George graduated summa cum laude from California State University, Northridge with a B.S. in Business Administration. After obtaining his Bachelor's Degree, George studied for his CFA exams and became a CFA Charterholder in 2017. He also obtained his CIMA® designation in 2017.

4 min

Commodity & Infrastructure Insights

Dollars and “Change”: what’s next for inflation and stocks? A look at the monetary supply

As of this writing, the latest U.S. annual inflation rate came at 9.1 percent for the month of June 2022. Milton Friedman, an American economist and recipient of the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, once said, “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” We will share our thoughts regarding the future path of U.S. inflation in the near future (say a year) using the money supply via the monetary base and the M2 money factors. The MacroRisk Analytics platform is utilized to show changes in the money supply and inflation.

3 min

We Identified Stocks We Thought Would Do Well and Bad with Rising Inflation, Here Is How They Are Doing So Far.

As many of us might know, inflation has been on the rise. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation as of September 2021 is 5.4 percent. In our previous blog post published on April 19, 2021, we identified 10 Nasdaq-100 stocks that we expected to do well with rising inflation and 10 Nasdaq-100 stocks that would not do well in such an environment.

3 min

Top 10 Nasdaq Stocks with Largest Relative Exposures to Inflation – April 13, 2021 Update

This post provides 10 stocks out of the Nasdaq-100 Index that investors can expect to benefit from a rise in inflation and 10 stocks that are expected to be negatively impacted by a rise in inflation. Financial advisors and investors need to be aware of how inflation is likely to impact their holdings and portfolios.

3 min

Economic Insights

Economic Sensitivities of the Nasdaq-100 Index

Recently, many of us had probably noticed that when the 10-year U.S. government bond yield increased, the Nasdaq-100 Index tended to drop in value. This post will demonstrate what other economic exposures of the Nasdaq-100 are using the patented 18-factor model created by MacroRisk Analytics®. Financial advisors and investors can use this information to better understand the risks and opportunities involved with an investment in the Nasdaq-100.

3 min

Economic Insights

Economic Climate for the Nasdaq-100 Stocks – February 2021 Update

The stock market seems to be on a tear lately, a great contrast to about a year ago when the markets started to get roiled by Covid-19 developments.

3 min

Tesla’s Exposures to the Economy

This post will demonstrate Tesla’s exposures to 18 MacroRisk factors (i.e., economic factors) via the Eta® profile on the MacroRisk Analytics® platform as of November 13, 2020. Understanding these exposures can help financial advisors and investors identify potential economic risks the company is exposed to and invest accordingly. Since the information presented herein uses proprietary and patented analysis, a unique look at Tesla is provided unlike many other posts about Tesla.

4 min

Economic Stats of Pharmaceutical Companies Developing a Covid-19 Vaccine

This post will analyze and compare some pharmaceutical companies developing a vaccine for Covid-19 from an economic perspective using the Eta® statistics on the MacroRisk Analytics® platform.

3 min

5 Nasdaq Stocks with Most and Least Economic Exposure to Oil

The global COVID-19 pandemic and disagreements between Russia and Saudi Arabia caused a one-two punch to the oil prices back in March of 2020. This has created a glut in the oil Market creating disarray amongst OPEC leaders and investors with the futures prices turning negative in April of 2020 for the first time in history.

3 min

Investment Strategy Insights

Unemployment is Significant: A List of NASDAQ Stocks Expected to Benefit from Unemployment Changes

Financial advisors need to pay special attention to the unemployment rate and understand which stocks are expected to benefit from a decrease or an increase in the unemployment rate and potentially adjust the portfolios of their clients accordingly.

3 min

The Economic Climate is Stormy for Most NASDAQ Stocks

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