Most investors have been caught flat-footed and under-exposed to stocks. More and more stocks, sectors and industries are breaking 2-year downtrends with fundamentals positively inflecting after a tough few years of rolling recessions and slowdowns.
The producer price index (PPI) release, which generally reflects wholesale prices, which ultimately feed into consumer prices, was below estimates on all fronts this morning (including core).
Bonds had a great month in November. Indications that the Fed will pause again were extrapolated into easing expectations as soon as next quarter. Lower yields help the relative valuation of equities, although Factset earnings forecasts are no longer trending upwards.
Securities markets shrugged off a challenging three months and delivered robust gains across the board in November as hopes for a soft economic landing gained ground among investors.
Last week’s market surge carried the November rally forward, a momentum fueled by a significant repricing of interest rates in the bond market. Since the last Federal Reserve meeting, rates have taken a dramatic dip, sparking optimism in the market.
CPI is now stable and trending modestly lower with the Fed able to be patient. The stage is now set for broader participation across size & style boxes.
After a challenging July that saw investors sell off high-flying technology stocks, buyers returned to the market in August, bidding up risk assets across the board.
Allocators add new exposures for a variety of reasons; diversification, returns, risk mitigation, etc. Understanding this, what is the most over-owned and expensive sector today?
After a red-hot June built on expectations that the Federal Reserve may succeed at killing inflation without killing the economy, July saw investors begin to question the soft-landing narrative.
It looks like a big margin call started in Japan. The Japanese Yen has become a funding currency in recent years, a source of cheap financing with the proceeds reinvested in better returning assets – such as US$ listed AI stocks.
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