Key Summary:
Conventional wisdom states that stocks generally struggle in periods of higher rates.
Fact: stocks generally perform above long-term averages in higher for...
When looking at the markets on the day of the October CPI release (Nov. 14) vs. later in the week (Nov. 16), you’ll notice there’s been a big shift in thinking, with ZERO additional rate hikes priced in from the Federal Reserve, signaling their fight against inflation may be coming to an end. A June rate cut has actually been priced in, and there are signs that it’s inching even earlier.
This week marks the beginning of a significant earnings season, with reports expected from several major companies including NFLX, ASML, JNJ, BA, MS, UNH, TSM, and GS.
While the first quarter's CPI prints this year were above expectations, one needs to 'look under the hood' to have a better view on inflation (where it was and where it is going).
Last week the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their latest ten-year budget projection. Significant deterioration in our fiscal outlook is visible with every release.
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