Consumer Spending: Are Consumers Tapped Out or Pushing Back?
Key Summary:
Sentiment towards the consumer and spending is about as negative as I’ve seen.
Assets...
After a red-hot June built on expectations that the Federal Reserve may succeed at killing inflation without killing the economy, July saw investors begin to question the soft-landing narrative.
It looks like a big margin call started in Japan. The Japanese Yen has become a funding currency in recent years, a source of cheap financing with the proceeds reinvested in better returning assets – such as US$ listed AI stocks.
Watch Joe Tigay and Brian Stutland, co- portfolio managers of a hedged-equity strategy for Catalyst Funds, discuss the volatile start to August experienced by markets, the VIX, and much more in the latest edition of Trading Zone.
This week marks the beginning of a significant earnings season, with reports expected from several major companies including NFLX, ASML, JNJ, BA, MS, UNH, TSM, and GS.
This week on the Trading Zone, we explore the complexities of volatility as we approach the upcoming presidential election and also the massive rebalancing in the tech center following the Nvidia hit this past week.
For a long time, the 60/40 portfolio was the cornerstone of financial planning for advisors. This simple strategy, allocating 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, offered a balance between growth potential and stability. However, recent market trends are challenging the effectiveness of this traditional approach.
In my opinion, true active strategies have a very important role in portfolios as complements to passive, cheap beta. Advisors need to understand what they own.
October was marked by continued volatility across fixed income and equity markets as investors faced various challenges, including persistent inflation concerns, rising yields, tightening monetary policy, and the backdrop of a U.S. Presidential election.
As an investor, it’s nice to know what we should expect from President Trump, because we have seen the movie before in 2017 – 2021. Apart from the early part of the Pandemic period, the economy and stock markets generally performed well.
Remember, our investment in stocks is a De facto vote of confidence on the economies in which we invest. Earnings, revenue, margins, free cash flow, and the growth of these important metrics is what drives stocks up or down over time.
The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.
Catalyst Funds
Rational Funds
Strategy Shares
