Most investors have been caught flat-footed and under-exposed to stocks. More and more stocks, sectors and industries are breaking 2-year downtrends with fundamentals positively inflecting after a tough few years of rolling recessions and slowdowns.
The producer price index (PPI) release, which generally reflects wholesale prices, which ultimately feed into consumer prices, was below estimates on all fronts this morning (including core).
Bonds had a great month in November. Indications that the Fed will pause again were extrapolated into easing expectations as soon as next quarter. Lower yields help the relative valuation of equities, although Factset earnings forecasts are no longer trending upwards.
Securities markets shrugged off a challenging three months and delivered robust gains across the board in November as hopes for a soft economic landing gained ground among investors.
There are many ways to track consumer and investor sentiment. Generally, only at extremes does the data offer very compelling investment opportunities.
Last week’s market surge carried the November rally forward, a momentum fueled by a significant repricing of interest rates in the bond market. Since the last Federal Reserve meeting, rates have taken a dramatic dip, sparking optimism in the market.
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
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