Bonds had a great month in November. Indications that the Fed will pause again were extrapolated into easing expectations as soon as next quarter. Lower yields help the relative valuation of equities, although Factset earnings forecasts are no longer trending upwards.
Securities markets shrugged off a challenging three months and delivered robust gains across the board in November as hopes for a soft economic landing gained ground among investors.
There are many ways to track consumer and investor sentiment. Generally, only at extremes does the data offer very compelling investment opportunities.
Last week’s market surge carried the November rally forward, a momentum fueled by a significant repricing of interest rates in the bond market. Since the last Federal Reserve meeting, rates have taken a dramatic dip, sparking optimism in the market.
CPI is now stable and trending modestly lower with the Fed able to be patient. The stage is now set for broader participation across size & style boxes.
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
We’ve lived this movie before. Last August, AAII bullish sentiment struck a 52-week high right before the Fed launched its September rate cutting cycle.
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