Consumer Spending: Are Consumers Tapped Out or Pushing Back?
Key Summary:
Sentiment towards the consumer and spending is about as negative as I’ve seen.
Assets...
Could there be a better core than the global consumption theme? Global consumer spending is 60% of the world’s $100 trillion GDP or $60 trillion per year.
Could there be a better core than the global consumption theme? Global consumer spending is 60% of the world’s $100 trillion GDP or $60 trillion per year.
Key Summary:
• Chart of the Week: The market is not as expensive as the media describes it.
• Brand update #1: Live Nation – robust demand continues & the stock is on sale.
• Brand update #2: Uber – strong trends and the shift to profitability continues.
We know intuitively, buying great merchandise on sale is something consumers love. Ironically, in the investment business, when great stocks go on sale, investors tend to freeze or sell. That’s a mistake.
Aggregate spending is a bit above the long-term trend, so we expect the spending dynamic to change as consumers continue to make important choices. As personal income goes positive as inflation cools over time, positive spending and saving dynamics will emerge.
Remember, our investment in stocks is a De facto vote of confidence on the economies in which we invest. Earnings, revenue, margins, free cash flow, and the growth of these important metrics is what drives stocks up or down over time.
The discretionary sector struggled as did all growth and quality-oriented areas of the market in 2022. That was a classic re-set and a raging opportunity to add exposure.
The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey of purchasing managers came in below expectations for August, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report indicated that nonfarm payrolls expanded by only 142,000 jobs during the month (against expectations of 161,000 jobs).
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