June Retail Sales Report Leads to More Questions

Today’s retail sales release has us scratching our heads.

The posted number showed strong retail sales for the month of June (ex-autos) with the control group indicating +0.9% MoM gains (the control group feeds into GDP data).

If one scrolled lower in the report, they would notice that those figures were seasonally adjusted.

The non-seasonally adjusted number showed a whopping nearly 6% decline MoM for retail sales ex-autos, tying the largest drop ever since the inception of the index.

Where lies the truth on the state of the consumer….?

Latest

A Summer Surge: August 2024 HANDLS Monthly Report

After a challenging July that saw investors sell off high-flying technology stocks, buyers returned to the market in August, bidding up risk assets across the board.

Where are the Hidden Risks in Your Portfolio Currently? Plus, an idea.

Allocators add new exposures for a variety of reasons; diversification, returns, risk mitigation, etc. Understanding this, what is the most over-owned and expensive sector today?

Consumer Spending: Are Consumers Tapped Out or Pushing Back?

Consumer Spending: Are Consumers Tapped Out or Pushing Back?  Key...

Knocked Down Inflation: July 2024 HANDLS Monthly Report

After a red-hot June built on expectations that the Federal Reserve may succeed at killing inflation without killing the economy, July saw investors begin to question the soft-landing narrative.

Newsletter

Don't miss

A Summer Surge: August 2024 HANDLS Monthly Report

After a challenging July that saw investors sell off high-flying technology stocks, buyers returned to the market in August, bidding up risk assets across the board.

Where are the Hidden Risks in Your Portfolio Currently? Plus, an idea.

Allocators add new exposures for a variety of reasons; diversification, returns, risk mitigation, etc. Understanding this, what is the most over-owned and expensive sector today?

Consumer Spending: Are Consumers Tapped Out or Pushing Back?

Consumer Spending: Are Consumers Tapped Out or Pushing Back?  Key...

Knocked Down Inflation: July 2024 HANDLS Monthly Report

After a red-hot June built on expectations that the Federal Reserve may succeed at killing inflation without killing the economy, July saw investors begin to question the soft-landing narrative.

Carry Traders Get Carried Out

It looks like a big margin call started in Japan. The Japanese Yen has become a funding currency in recent years, a source of cheap financing with the proceeds reinvested in better returning assets – such as US$ listed AI stocks.
Leland Abrams, Portfolio Manager
Leland Abrams, Portfolio Manager
Leland Abrams serves as Chief Investment Officer for the investment manager, Wynkoop LLC. Leland is Lead Portfolio Manager of an NARMBS income-oriented fund at Catalyst Funds. Prior to joining Wynkoop in September 2016 as Principal and Portfolio Manager, Mr. Abrams spent five and a half years at Candlewood Investment Group LP. Most recently, he was the RMBS Sector Manager responsible for overseeing approximately $1 billion in RMBS investments across the firm. Previously, Mr. Abrams spent two and a half years as a non-agency mortgage and esoteric ABS trader and credit analyst at United Capital Markets, Inc. Prior to that, Mr. Abrams was a Credit Analyst and Trader at Dresdner Bank, AG (Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein). Mr. Abrams holds a B.A. in Economics from Bucknell University. Mr. Abrams served as a Director and member of the Audit Committee for Front Yard Residential Corp, a public REIT headquartered in Christiansted, VI until the company’s sale in January 2021.

A Summer Surge: August 2024 HANDLS Monthly Report

After a challenging July that saw investors sell off high-flying technology stocks, buyers returned to the market in August, bidding up risk assets across the board.

Where are the Hidden Risks in Your Portfolio Currently? Plus, an idea.

Allocators add new exposures for a variety of reasons; diversification, returns, risk mitigation, etc. Understanding this, what is the most over-owned and expensive sector today?

Consumer Spending: Are Consumers Tapped Out or Pushing Back?

Consumer Spending: Are Consumers Tapped Out or Pushing Back?  Key Summary: Sentiment towards the consumer and spending is about as negative as I’ve seen. Assets...