While May’s Retail Sales Report showed a historic rebound versus historic plunges in March and April, we expect most economic data to normalize at lower levels and continue to stay volatile.
Key Points
• Stock markets often over-react, the truth mostly lives in the middle.
• We have likely begun the stagnation part of our economic reality.
•...
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the widely expected employment report for May. Despite continued weekly jobless claims over the last month exceeding more than 8 million, the BLS reported an increase of more than 2.5 million jobs in May.
The headlines are still unnerving and volatility remains a worry. Many asset classes have yet to recover and countless investors fear additional losses. Fundamentals, investor positioning and sentiment are all conveying mixed signals.
Consumer sentiment gets reported on a monthly basis. This data is helpful to determine what current and future consumer behavior might look like. The data can also be fickle, however.
China-U.S. tensions have been rising. Governments worldwide have jumped in to fill the economic gaps left by COVID-19. The Fed’s money printers have certainly been … whirring?
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
We’ve lived this movie before. Last August, AAII bullish sentiment struck a 52-week high right before the Fed launched its September rate cutting cycle.
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