Market Trends & Outlook

Investors are slowly waking up to the realization that "stagflation" is a problem. For years, the term "stagflation" has been thrown around and dismissed like a sighting of "Bigfoot." However, rising inflationary pressures are now colliding with slowing economic growth. This collision presents a challenge for Central Bankers and their monetary policy experiments.

Hindsight is 20/20 and the future is always to a degree uncertain. The same is true when looking at the macro environment whether you are an economist, investor, etc. The current macro environment continues to reside under the COVID-induced cloud of uncertainty, spawning overreactions, underreactions, and misdirection.

The two front covers from The Economist, thirteen months apart, represent an overdue liberal education.

For most of the year, uranium prices have trudged along unremarkably. Then, in August, uranium prices went "to the moon". In the span of a month, the uranium spot price surged 70 percent. Prices have since come back down to earth, but as of this writing, are still over 30 percent above their price on August 16th. That is still far below previous spikes in 2008 and 2011, but overall uranium seems to have broken its downward trend.

Covid introduced us to first-time meetings over Zoom. Last week I had the pleasure of meeting Jack Jeffords and Adam Bloomberg, from Mount Pleasant, SC, in person after having first met them both via a video call several months ago. Recognizing a familiar face along with the person’s voice reinforced how helpful it is to chat on a screen when traveling to a meeting isn’t practical. Like it or not, zoom is now an adjective (although we prefer Microsoft Teams).

The fact we have the lowest interest rates in 5000-years is indicative of the economic challenges we face. Such was a note brought to my attention by my colleague Jeffrey Marcus of TPA Analytics

The global energy crisis is becoming the biggest investment story of 2021. US consumers are uniquely unaffected so far by spiraling prices for natural gas and coal. Crude oil continues to cause some discomfort at the White House, which regularly pleads with OPEC to offset their own policies by increasing supply.

Is "buy and hold" always the best way to invest? It is common to see increasing numbers of articles touting the benefits of "armchair" investing during long bull market advances. The last decade has been a boon for the index ETF industry, financial applications, and media websites promoting "buy and hold" investing and diversification strategies.