Market Trends & Outlook

Catalyst and Rational investment teams initial reaction to today’s 50 bps rate hike from the Federal Reserve and the subsequent Q&A session.

Recession warnings are clearly on the rise. Much of the initial media fervor focuses on the inversion of the yield curve.

Recession warnings are clearly on the rise. Much of the initial media fervor focuses on the inversion of the yield curve.

"Anatomy of a Bear Market" by Russell Napier is a "must-read" manuscript. Given current market dynamics, a review seems timely. As my colleague, Richard Rosso, CFP, previously penned:

Even though the term “stagflation” remains an unconfirmed fear for investors as they try and draw parallels to the 1970s, that does not mean that opportunity does not exist. Rather, it is quite the opposite. A proper understanding of the intricacies of stagflation would indicate that gold, soft commodities, floating-rate bonds, short-term corporate bonds, and legacy non-agency RMBS remain the key asset classes that investors should seek to gain exposure to not only mitigate stagflation risk but to generate higher risk-adjusted returns as well.

Consumers and institutions spending >$40 trillion per year is the largest addressable market opportunity there is. Within the primary thematic, there are a few mega-trends that offer investors significant investment opportunities.

Consumers and institutions spending >$40 trillion per year is the largest addressable market opportunity there is. Within the primary thematic, there are a few mega-trends that offer investors significant investment opportunities.

Interestingly, both the technology and consumer discretionary indices have the highest beat rates versus the S&P 500 on a calendar year basis as well. Technology indices have outperformed the S&P 500 index 19 of the 32 years since the data began or roughly 59% of the time. Consumer Discretionary stocks via the index has outperformed the S&P 500 20 of the 32 years with a roughly 63% beat rate.