Market Trends & Outlook

As we enter the second half of the year, many questions remain regarding the trajectory of financial markets and the economy. Our stance on stagflation (or "recession-inflation") remains steadfast. Drawing parallels to the mid-1970s, structurally, we are in a stagflation environment amid 41-year high supply-side inflation (driven by soaring oil prices and food prices), slowing GDP, and the eventual unravelment of the tight labor market.

Basic economics says that companies can only set prices at a level where the current supply will meet demand. Moreover, looking at prices in a vacuum is also very misleading because it doesn’t account for changes in the firm’s input or operating costs.

Basic economics says that companies can only set prices at a level where the current supply will meet demand. Moreover, looking at prices in a vacuum is also very misleading because it doesn’t account for changes in the firm’s input or operating costs.

The “Fear Of Missing Out,” or “F.O.M.O.” is a centuries-old behavioral trait that began to get studied in 1996 by marketing strategist Dr. Dan Herman.

The “Fear Of Missing Out,” or “F.O.M.O.” is a centuries-old behavioral trait that began to get studied in 1996 by marketing strategist Dr. Dan Herman.

Are recession risks fully “priced in” by the markets? Such was an interesting question asked recently by my colleague Albert Edwards at Societe Generale.

“HODL,” an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to “Meme stocks” during the runup in 2020 and...

NFIB signals a recession is coming…again. The reason I say “again” is because, in September 2019, we discussed these same signals stating: