The market keeps cooling on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike plans, even though the Fed and inflation aren’t cooling. Like the broken-hearted who with short memories keep returning to their heart breakers, markets are caught in a cycle of denial as to how far the Fed wants to move on and move up, instead discounting the Fed’s plan to jack up our discount rates. What follows, in near scripted fashion, is heartbreak meltdown when Fed officials reiterate they aren’t interested in how we feel. Despite the Fed telegraphing its next move, warning against a false sense of security, and its carefully curated words designed to let the market down gently, gently down it does not go. Lather, rinse, and repeat, before and after each recent FOMC meeting or Jerome Powell speech.
The bear market is over. While that statement fills the mainstream media, it remains a hotly debated question in every media forum. It is an interesting point considering that it was just in June we were answering the question of “when will this bear market end?”
Investors are terrified. Such is what you would assume from recent mainstream media headlines and CNBC’s continuous run of “Markets In Turmoil.” There are also plenty of indicators suggesting that retail investors are terrified about financial markets. For example, the net percentage of bullish responses from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and the Institutional Investors index (INVI) are near previous bear market lows. Such is despite the sharp rally over the last two weeks.
Once a tried-and-true approach to investing, market observers have begun to cast doubt on the 60/40 portfolio approach, and with inflation and interest rates both on the rise, investors making changes are doing so with good reason.
Once a tried-and-true approach to investing, market observers have begun to cast doubt on the 60/40 portfolio approach, and with inflation and interest rates both on the rise, investors making changes are doing so with good reason.
2022 seems to be setting the stage for the 2020’s to be a lost decade–a decade where an asset class generates negative returns–for both stocks and bonds. A lost decade can derail an investor’s long-term financial goals. But today we’ll explain why not all hope should be lost on investors.
2022 seems to be setting the stage for the 2020’s to be a lost decade–a decade where an asset class generates negative returns–for both stocks and bonds. A lost decade can derail an investor’s long-term financial goals. But today we’ll explain why not all hope should be lost on investors.
The second quarter of 2022 continues with intense volatility. Both equity markets and bond markets continue to unravel the complexities of supply constraints, stagflation, hawkish Fed policy (and the velocity of rate hikes), slower domestic and global economic growth, geopolitical headwinds (i.e., the Russia-Ukraine war), the commodity "Supercycle," persistent COVID-19 demand woes (i.e., China lockdowns), and potential Gray Rhino events (spurred by fears of the current environment). Recessionary fears and a flight to safety remain investors' top priorities.
For months, investors have been scaling what feels like an endless wall of worry. Each concern that gets resolved seems to spawn new uncertainties, yet the market has continued its relentless climb higher.
We’ve lived this movie before. Last August, AAII bullish sentiment struck a 52-week high right before the Fed launched its September rate cutting cycle.
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