Investment Strategy Insights

Legacy or seasoned senior RMBS were issued prior to the U.S. housing market collapse in 2007. Today, these bonds are supported by a resilient housing market, are backed by seasoned mortgages with lower LTVs, possess low interest rate sensitivity, and can benefit from refinancing/prepayment because they tend to trade at a discount.

When it comes to investing, I attempt to be as realistic as possible. My life of following the markets began in the mid-90s when I saw the tremendous rise in prices associated with the tech boom, only to see subsequent crashes and recoveries. The lesson many have taken away from the market is that if I just buy and hold, I will be fine.

In the later stages of a bull market advance, the financial media and Wall Street analysts start seeking out rationalizations to support their bullish views. One common refrain is “there are trillions of dollars in cash sitting on the sidelines just waiting to come into the market.”

As human beings, we consume from the day we are born until the day we pass. Personal consumption is the largest and most predictable phenomenon there is. Seven billion people spending money to acquire things they want and need always offers interesting investing opportunities. Sometimes, however, certain spending categories become more important than others.

There are certainly many similarities between today and 1999. From exceedingly high valuations to a rush by private equity investors to IPO overly priced companies as quickly as possible, prices are high. Of course, such is not possible without an underlying “Fear​​ of Missing Out, or F.O.M.O.” by retail investors.

While markets have certainly been on a tear this year, due to massive amounts of Federal Stimulus, it has been an advance solely on valuation expansion. While the decline in 2020 earnings was no surprise given the pandemic, earnings were already declining in 2019. The chart shows this in the return attribution of the S&P 500.

While markets have certainly been on a tear this year, due to massive amounts of Federal Stimulus, it has been an advance solely on valuation expansion. While the decline in 2020 earnings was no surprise given the pandemic, earnings were already declining in 2019. The chart shows this in the return attribution of the S&P 500.

This weeks blog is a continuation from last weeks theme of a return to social gathering and normal consumption spending as we head into 2021. Mean reversions are one of the best opportunities in the investment business.